In today’s briefing:
- Nuclear Nugget: 3 Questions For The Nuclear Space
- EA: Disinflationary Gravity in Sep-23
- Party like It’s 2018?
- Portfolio Watch: The Last Gasp of a Dying Man?
Nuclear Nugget: 3 Questions For The Nuclear Space
- Fun fact: In 2009 there were about 35.000 people employed in the nuclear industry in Germany, which at that time produced 135 TWh of electricity.
- In 2016 there were 160.000 people employed in the German wind turbine industry which produced a total of 80 TWh of electricity.
- Question 1: What is the overall supply and demand outlook?
EA: Disinflationary Gravity in Sep-23
- EA inflation slowed by 0.9pp to 4.3% in Sep-23, 0.2pp beyond the Consensus expectation after they overcompensated for August’s upside. There was little news for us again.
- Underlying inflationary pressures are running much closer to the target than last year, so broad base effects dragged core inflation down to 4.5%, 0.3pp under the consensus.
- Another substantial drop in October will only be confirmed after the ECB’s 26 October decision, but recent weakness will likely keep its policy on hold then.
Party like It’s 2018?
- Americans have much less appetite for spending money during the coming ‘holiday season’ than in July.
- A parallel is building between current macro-consumer conditions and Q4 2018, when retail sales tumbled by what was then the biggest decline on record.
- Spiking interest rates, falling consumer sentiment, a somewhat less resilient labor market, and depleted excess savings may accumulate in another sudden spending stop.
Portfolio Watch: The Last Gasp of a Dying Man?
- Hello Everybody and welcome back to our weekly Portfolio Watch where we take the temperature on our Macro calls and provide our perspective on how they align with what we read in the tea leaves.
- Highlights upfront:We’ve performed exceptionally well in an exceptionally challenging market over the past few weeks.
- Our equity exposure is entirely in spreads, but we lean bearish on equities and the overall economy.
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