In today’s briefing:
- Mint Macro Roundup: U.S. Inflation Dips Below 3% Amid Stronger Retail Sales
- Heard From Fortress Hill: Weekly Market Observations (16 Aug 2024)
- EIA and OPEC Cut Demand Forecasts Amid China Slowdown; EIA Predicts Limited Oil Price Growth
- HEW: Easing Into Resilient Activity
- Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 16 Aug 2024
- UK Activity Remains In Rude Health
Mint Macro Roundup: U.S. Inflation Dips Below 3% Amid Stronger Retail Sales
- CPI dropped to 2.9% YoY in July, the lowest since March 2021, while Core CPI cooled to 3.2% YoY, reflecting a broad-based softening in inflation.
- Retail sales surged 1% MoM, driven by a volatile 3.6% rise in motor vehicle sales, signaling resilient consumer spending despite mixed economic conditions.
- Manufacturing and industrial production contracted, pushing the GDPNow forecast down to 2.4%, highlighting persistent weakness in these sectors.
Heard From Fortress Hill: Weekly Market Observations (16 Aug 2024)
- We reduce the long US and Hong Kong markets positions as we close some short put positions, until Fed interest rate cut in September, and then thereafter for a month.
- Particularly we close some short put positions in Tracker Fund and AAPL. On the other hand we are not all pessimistic in short term, calling on LINK Reit (HKG: 0823)
- Overall all our positions in the US and Hong Kong markets are all long, but we are waiting for a strike moment one, two days before the Fed rate cut.
EIA and OPEC Cut Demand Forecasts Amid China Slowdown; EIA Predicts Limited Oil Price Growth
- EIA maintained its 2024 oil demand forecast but cut its 2025 estimate by 160k bpd. OPEC reduced its 2024 and 2025 forecasts by 135k and 65k bpd, respectively.
- Total production of OPEC members obliged to implement supply cuts averaged 21.45m bpd in July, exceeding the target by 1%.
- EIA lowered its 2024 and 2025 oil price forecasts due to slower demand growth. However, it still expects prices to rise in H22024 led by a decline in inventories.
HEW: Easing Into Resilient Activity
- US retail sales data remained strong this week, despite surprise rate cuts in New Zealand and the Philippines, indicating no need for more aggressive easing.
- Upcoming decisions from Sweden, Thailand, Indonesia, and Korea will be closely watched for further signs of this dovish trend, despite data and risk assets holding up.
- Flash PMIs will be the main focus next week, particularly in the US where the high level is considered vulnerable.
Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 16 Aug 2024
- Japan’s Q2 economic rebound may be misleading due to annualized reporting; future slowdown is a concern.
- Political instability in Japan and Thailand, with both countries’ leaders stepping down amid economic challenges.
- We maintain a cautious market outlook, especially on Thailand’s struggling economy and currency.
UK Activity Remains In Rude Health
- Retail sales and GDP data broadly matched resilient expectations. Sales rebounded to trend in July after strikes and lousy weather temporarily stalled GDP in June.
- Activity growth is tracking above its potential pace for the third consecutive quarter in Q3 as the UK economy remains in rude health that defies monetary tightening.
- Unchanged unemployment over the year corroborates this signal that monetary policy isn’t that tight. Rate cuts risk proving premature to the point they need reversing.
💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
Sign Up for Free
The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network
- ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
- ✓ Personalised Alerts
- ✓ Custom Watchlists
- ✓ Company Data and News
- ✓ Events & Webinars
