In today’s briefing:
- Mint Macro Roundup: BoJ Maintains Loose Policy Yet Yen Remains Strong
- Sentiment Nugget: Central Bank Divergence Into Year-End
- The Weekly Market Monitor – Bye-Bye OPEC, Hello Liquidity, and Welcome Back Earnings!
- EIA Watch: Is OPEC falling apart? 2024 outlook
Mint Macro Roundup: BoJ Maintains Loose Policy Yet Yen Remains Strong
- BoJ stuck to its ultra-loose monetary policy at its policy meeting on 19/Dec. It continues to maintain an extremely dovish stance to encourage economic growth.
- Governor Ueda stated that the prospects of inflation declining sustainably to target and wages rising and propping up demand remain high.
- Yen initially weakened following continued easing however it has recovered losses and stands 1.7% stronger than its level before Fed’s dovish stance on 13/Dec.
Sentiment Nugget: Central Bank Divergence Into Year-End
- Into year-end we have noted a number of key shifts in what Central Bank language is actually telling us from a quantitative point of view.
- We regularly track and update our measure of positivity/negativity of Bank language contained in statements, outlooks and speeches on a scale of -1 to +1 in our DataHub for premium subscribers.
- There you can access full histories and dig deeper into the underlying drivers.
The Weekly Market Monitor – Bye-Bye OPEC, Hello Liquidity, and Welcome Back Earnings!
- After the latest data, our earnings bellwether is back to zero, suggesting company earnings may be off the hook for big declines. That would be different this time.
- Our Fair Value estimate of the 10-year US Treasury is dropping like a stone, yet the gap with the actual yield remains strikingly large. ‘term premium aficionados’ are likely wrong.
- We look at a bunch of US housing and consumer data and must conclude that the odds of an imminent recession are shrinking.
EIA Watch: Is OPEC falling apart? 2024 outlook
- Welcome to this year’s final EIA watch with a 2024 outlook plus your weekly updates from our EIA models.
- Before we start, we have some breaking news coming out of OPEC.
- Jornal de Angola reports that Angola will exit OPEC and we see this as the first cracks starting to show within the cartel.
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