In today’s briefing:
- Mint Macro Roundup: Barring BoJ Intervention, Will Yen to Tank to New Lows?
- Mint Macro Roundup: Upbeat US Retail Sales in Dec Trims Markets Rate Cut Expectations in March
- CX Daily: China Financial Regulator Aims for Greater Consistency With New Departments
- UK: False Retail Trend Break in Dec-23
Mint Macro Roundup: Barring BoJ Intervention, Will Yen to Tank to New Lows?
- Fundamental weakening bias in Yen has returned with BoJ unlikely to exit loose policy as inflation has cooled and sustainable economic growth remains uncertain.
- Dollar also looks stronger as economic data from the US has shown a rebound in inflation as well as an unexpectedly strong economy.
- Yen likely to maintain weakening trend, barring intervention. However, it may face resistance as it approaches November lows.
Mint Macro Roundup: Upbeat US Retail Sales in Dec Trims Markets Rate Cut Expectations in March
- Retail sales in December rose by 0.6% MoM, beating analyst expectations. Core retail sales also grew stronger than expected.
- Automobile, clothing and accessories, and online store sales led growth on a MoM basis, while food services sales growth remained flat.
- Given the buoyant growth in sales, traders pared back their expectations of a Fed interest rate cut in March 2024.
CX Daily: China Financial Regulator Aims for Greater Consistency With New Departments
- Reform / In Depth: China financial regulator aims for greater consistency with new departments
- Davos /Davos attendees weigh China’s strengths and weaknesses at Caixin luncheon
- Corruption /Shanghai state media veteran tried for accepting millions in bribes
UK: False Retail Trend Break in Dec-23
- UK retail sales crashed by 3.2% m-o-m in the official estimates for Dec-23, appearing to break the well-established trends of rising values and flat volumes.
- Expenditure for Christmas should be read across November and December, recognising that the sales events are challenging for the ONS to adjust for seasonally.
- Non-Seasonally adjusted sales were consistent with the performance in recent years, suggesting the trend break is a temporary statistical issue, not a fundamental one.
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