In today’s briefing:
- Malaysia’s State Polls an Acid Test for Anwar’s Government
- Philippines’ Marcos Has Surprised on the Upside
- Markets Better Not Focus on Valuation
- The Energy Cable #28 Is There Life in Energy After All? – Watch Series
- EM by EM #12 – Is the surging Peso a prelude for a longer Mexico bull case ? – Steno Signals
- The Great Game – Erdogan’s Historic Flip-Flop – The Great Game
- CX Daily: China Looks to Saudi Arabia Amid Shifting Sands in U.S. Economic Ties
- UK: Slackening Too Slowly for the BoE
- Oh, Canada!
- CX Daily: Xiaomi to Stay the Course on Chip Design After Rival Bails
Malaysia’s State Polls an Acid Test for Anwar’s Government
- The forthcoming state legislative assembly elections in six states will be the first major electoral test for premier Anwar Ibrahim and his coalition government.
- Baseline expectations are modest for both Anwar and his opponents in the Perikatan Nasional bloc. Trends among Malay voters will be key in determining the results.
- Structural factors point to the headline status quo being maintained but watch for socio-religious issues and the parties’ ability to appeal to younger first-time voters.
Philippines’ Marcos Has Surprised on the Upside
- The Macros Jr. Administration is in good standing after its first year: its economic agenda of fiscal consolidation, infrastructure spending, and liberalization strikes us as sound.
- Some positive political signs are also emerging: investigations into previous extrajudicial killings and a relaxation of restrictions on the media are encouraging.
- The foreign policy shift is significant: Marcos has abandoned the Sinophilia of his predecessor Duterte, taking a more hawkish stance on maritime disputes vis-à-vis China.
Markets Better Not Focus on Valuation
- The risk premium of equity asset classes has further declined. The risk premium on US Equities is now just 3.1%, which is very unattractive.
- The risk premium of equity asset classes has further declined. The risk premium on US Equities is now just 3.1%, which is very unattractive.
- Our ‘Bellwether EPS indicator’ points to a year-on-year earnings-per-share decline of nearly 22%, leaving little room for earnings growth to remain positive.
The Energy Cable #28 Is There Life in Energy After All? – Watch Series
- Rates are moving on the back of strong numbers in the labor market, but energy is not finding a bid… yet? This week we wonder if there is life in energy after all.
- Below are some of the important curves in the energy space with their current price and price 1 month ago. Notice something? All have shifted upwards and we thus wonder if there is life in energy space after all?
- If you are looking for arguments for strength in the curves below we find the Fed’s failure to tighten monetary conditions properly obvious, but that same reason might be why investors should tread lightly. Maybe that’s why energy stocks haven’t outperformed the market over the last month.
EM by EM #12 – Is the surging Peso a prelude for a longer Mexico bull case ? – Steno Signals
- Many have profited from MXN carry in the first half of 2023.
- But is there more left to squeeze out or is it running on fumes?
- We give our take here and assess the structural patterns at play in Mexico in relation to recent performance and the geopolitical climate.
The Great Game – Erdogan’s Historic Flip-Flop – The Great Game
- 3 main takeaways from the historic summit in Lithuania
- The recent NATO summit held in Lithuania had an array of impactful moments that are set to shape the course of global politics in the coming years.
- The event will be dissected from a multitude of perspectives, but there are a few major developments that stand out, demonstrating the complex tapestry of global alliances, negotiations, and unexpected twists.
CX Daily: China Looks to Saudi Arabia Amid Shifting Sands in U.S. Economic Ties
- Saudi Arabia /Cover Story: China looks to Saudi Arabia amid shifting sands in U.S. economic ties
- China-U.S. /: In talks with Yellen, China demands removal of U.S. economic sanctions
- Funds /: New rules for China’s $3 trillion private fund industry have more teeth, experts say
UK: Slackening Too Slowly for the BoE
- The UK unemployment rate surprisingly jumped by 0.2pp to 3.98%, its highest level since Dec-21. This time the rise looks genuine rather than being a sampling issue.
- Wage growth was surprisingly strong owing to revisions again, while the monthly impulse matched our view. It will probably peak in the next month’s release.
- The BoE may await slower wages and CPI inflation’s step down before reverting to 25bp increments as the Governor didn’t resist pricing. We now expect 50bps in August.
Oh, Canada!
- The yield patterns for the 2-year and 10-year in Canada differ significantly from those in the US.
- In particular, the 2-year Canadian yield charts are better-defined patterns than the US yields and provide more clarity.
- In the short term, the Canadian 10-year yields are expected to increase more quickly than the US as it catches up.
CX Daily: Xiaomi to Stay the Course on Chip Design After Rival Bails
- Xiaomi /In Depth: Xiaomi to stay the course on chip design after rival bails
- Personnel /: China’s new office for Hong Kong and Macao affairs has its first head
- Property /: China extends policy to take pressure off ailing property market
💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
Sign Up for Free
The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network
- ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
- ✓ Personalised Alerts
- ✓ Custom Watchlists
- ✓ Company Data and News
- ✓ Events & Webinars
