In today’s briefing:
- Malaysian NR Scene In Sept Nothing To Cheer About
- Positioning Watch – The Herd Behavior Strikes Back!
- CX Daily: How BMW, Audi and Mercedes Ended Up Also-Rans in China
- [ETP 2024/47] WTI Rises on Ukraine-Russia Tensions; Henry Hub Jumps on Cold Weather Forecasts
- HEW: Misaligned Data Focus For FX
Malaysian NR Scene In Sept Nothing To Cheer About
- Steep dip of 30.6% in NR exports month-on-month in Sept
- Ivory Coast’s infusion touches an abysmal share of 14.9%
- Rubber glove exports to be worth a record RM13.7 billion in 2024
Positioning Watch – The Herd Behavior Strikes Back!
- Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch.
- Main Takeaways: The energy bet is starting to look compelling. Oil positioning is fairly bearish, and it seems hedge funds are starting to play the oil trade from the short side after months of avoiding energy altogether.
- The risk asset trade is still on, but positioning is stretched. The Santa rally suggests higher equity prices, but year-end position squaring could disrupt the long equities play.
CX Daily: How BMW, Audi and Mercedes Ended Up Also-Rans in China
- Autos / In Depth: How BMW, Audi and Mercedes ended up also-rans in China
- Retail /: Nongfu Spring founder attacks livestream sales model and low-price platforms
- Energy Insider /: Russian gas to power Shanghai by year-end, Beijing reins in solar industry
[ETP 2024/47] WTI Rises on Ukraine-Russia Tensions; Henry Hub Jumps on Cold Weather Forecasts
- For the week ending 15/Nov, US crude inventories rose by 0.5m barrels, exceeding expectations of a 0.4m barrel increase. Gasoline stocks exceeded estimates, while distillates declined less than expected.
- US natural gas inventories fell by 3 Bcf for the week ending 15/Nov, contrasting analyst expectations of a 2 Bcf buildup. Inventories are 6.4% above the 5-year seasonal average.
- TD Cowen raised its PT on Exxon, while Morgan Stanely lowered its PT on Halliburton. Aramco and Sinopec began the construction of a refining and petrochemical complex in China.
HEW: Misaligned Data Focus For FX
- The Euro has weakened over the past week due to markets focusing on hawkish price and wage inflation, with more emphasis on activity growth rates and PMIs than on unemployment and underlying inflationary pressures.
- The Flash HICP for November may not rise as expected due to base effects such as German package holidays, which is considered a temporary blip.
- Despite most data warning against a 50bp cut, the RBNZ is likely to make this cut again, positioning it as an outlier.
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