Daily Brief Macro: MacroVoices #414 Louis Vincent Gave: Party Like it’s 1999 and more

• Patrick Ceresno will be a panelist in a session on the nuclear renaissance.
• The S&P 500 March futures were up 298 basis points at the close on February 7.
• The US dollar index was up 52 basis points, trading at 104.5.

This podcast is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only.

• China is injecting liquidity into the markets, but ironically, with investors sick and tired of negative returns, much of this liquidity is finding its way everywhere except China.
• The downturn in commercial real estate is becoming a global phenomenon. A growing number of companies is grappling with bad real estate loans, leading to a sharp increase in provisions.
• The most recent Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices (SLOOS) reveals yet another trend that the recession is already behind us.

• The BCRP reduced the reference rate by 25bps to 6.25% in response to favourable inflation data and a downward trend in global inflation, indicating an adaptive and data-driven approach to monetary policy.
• Future policy adjustments will hinge on a comprehensive analysis of inflation trends, economic activity indicators, and external economic risks, maintaining a balanced approach towards achieving the inflation target.
• The Bank’s vigilance towards climate risks and international conflicts underscores its proactive stance in mitigating potential inflationary pressures and stabilizing economic growth.

• Hello everyone and welcome back to yet another assessment of our macro book- and as per usual accompanied by our current macro outlook!We knock on the door to a week with yet another US CPI release- this time revised:The revision we received today proved not to be the unpleasant surprise everyone feared given the 2023 revision and Waller & Powell both having flagged it and as a result, our expectations of a soft print remain unchanged- for elaboration see here.
• While it might feel like we’re repeating ourselves, our belief in the USD and US risk assets being the best options out there hasn’t budged.
• That said, we’ve been tossing around a few ideas and topics internally over the last week: Markets haven’t continued the dramatic price movements since last Friday’s (some might label it as “fake”, see here) NFP blowout, but it’s noteworthy that short-term expectations are significantly outstripping those further along the curve.

• Welcome to a short and sweet preview of the US CPI report on Tuesday.
• The revisions for 2023 came in just a few moments ago, and they barely moved the needle.
• But December was revised down a tad, in contrast to what one should have expected given the pattern seen.

• Banco de México maintained the overnight interbank interest rate at 11.25%, aligning with the consensus forecast, indicating a cautious approach in the face of a slight increase in headline inflation and persistent core inflation.
• The decision reflects concerns over the slight uptick in headline inflation, persistent core inflation levels, and the influence of both domestic economic performance and global economic conditions on future inflation trajectories.
• The central bank signals a readiness to adjust the monetary policy stance in future meetings based on the inflation outlook and economic developments, emphasizing the balance of risks, which remains biased to the upside.

• Software / China’s software service providers bet on AI amid funding chill
• PE /Exclusive: Young Chinese PE investor dies from mental health issues, sources say
• Property /: Embattled developer R&F offloads London project for debt relief