In today’s briefing:
- Macro Watch: The Correct Calculations on How Severe This Banking Crisis Is..
- Real Estate Watch: More Charts on the Real Estate Outlook
- Asset Class Performance After the Final Hike – Part I Equities
- The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Prodia Diagnosed, Bukalapak, and MAPI’s Omnichannel
- Higher Uncertainty Poses Challenges to US Economic and Financial Outlook for Investors and the Fed
- CX Daily: The Battle to Save Sea Life From an Ocean of Plastic
- While Commodities sold off – we made profits // Some relief on the sugar front
- WTI and Bloomberg Commodity Index
Macro Watch: The Correct Calculations on How Severe This Banking Crisis Is..
- It is generally hard to argue that we are near the 2008-like systemic risk scenarios at this juncture
- Our quantitative model based on empirical lead/lag studies of hundreds of recession indicators point to 75% risk of a recession starting in Q3
- We find the timing increasingly opportune for a manufactured weakening of the CNY versus the USD
Real Estate Watch: More Charts on the Real Estate Outlook
- Regional banks are likely going to suffer more as the real estate market looks vulnerable
- Some parts of the real estate market are back at 2008 levels
- Western states have taken the largest beating, which is likely to continue
Asset Class Performance After the Final Hike – Part I Equities
- US equities have celebrated the end of more recent major Fed tightening cycles, realizing healthy returns after the final rate hike.
- Things look pretty different after the first Fed rate cut following these major tightening cycles.
- US equities also do well between the final Fed hike and the first rate cut. Stay tuned as we will expand this analysis to other asset classes.
The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Prodia Diagnosed, Bukalapak, and MAPI’s Omnichannel
- The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across South East Asia
- The past week nsaw insights on Prodia, Bukalapak, Mitra Adiperkasa, Pertamina Hulu Energi, Kimly Ltd, and Penguin International, Lian Beng, Oishi Group, and Golden Energy & Resources.
- There were also macro insights on Singapore Macro and Malaysian politics from Manu Bhaskaran, as well as some Index rebalancing Insights on the SET50 and LQ45 from Brian Freitas.
Higher Uncertainty Poses Challenges to US Economic and Financial Outlook for Investors and the Fed
- US investors’ expectations about future US economic activity remain fluid as investors continue not to buy the Fed’s forward guidance of interest rates remaining higher for longer.
- Global economic dynamics are still reflecting legacy issues attributable to the COVID-19 pandemic, notably a less elastic aggregate supply curve and tighter labour markets.
- Fed policy conduct remains data dependent after the federal funds rate was raised 25 basis points to 5%-5.25%, but a pause is likely as new economic and financial information unfolds.
CX Daily: The Battle to Save Sea Life From an Ocean of Plastic
- Plastic /Cover Story: The battle to save sea life from an ocean of plastic
- Summit /: President Xi Jinping to host summit to bolster Central Asian ties
- Connect /: China to launch interest rate swap connect May 15
While Commodities sold off – we made profits // Some relief on the sugar front
- The wobbly first four months of the year are over, and it has become easier to detect clear trends in the market.
- As you can see, our YTD performance has clearly picked up, and we’re confident that we’ll continue to clearly outperform the CRB Commodity Index.
- Consultancy Datagro announced on Thursday that Brazil’s center-south region is anticipated to have a sugar output of 38.3 million tonnes in the current season, which began in April.
WTI and Bloomberg Commodity Index
- I posted this on the chat on Sunday but forgot click on send via Email button, so here Oil looked like we might bottom when OPEC+ cut production.
- And we gapped up mentioned in the note “Ignoring Tailwinds 7th April 2023.”
- “With a slower economy thesis, price hikes will likely be supply-driven constraints.
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