In today’s briefing:
- Macro/Rates Watch: When the entire foundation rests on liquidity
- Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 23 Aug 2024
- Heard From Fortress Hill: Weekly Market Observations (23 Aug 2024)
- HEW: Pushback to Inconsistent Pricing
Macro/Rates Watch: When the entire foundation rests on liquidity
- What a July we’ve had.
- The G3 central banks have now received plenty of labor market data that justifies cutting rates fairly aggressively.
- In our opinion, this is a tricky trend to resist, even if market pricing does admittedly seem aggressive.
Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 23 Aug 2024
- The U.S. released revised non-farm payroll figures, with significant job cuts expected, but the fiscal deficit continues to grow, raising concerns about economic stability.
- Frequent data revisions and premature releases, such as those in Japan and India, highlight the need for more accurate and delayed economic data reporting.
- Political unrest in Indonesia as the government attempts to overturn a court ruling to allow President Jokowi’s son to run for governorship, reflecting a trend towards autocracy in the region.
Heard From Fortress Hill: Weekly Market Observations (23 Aug 2024)
- Hang Seng barely moves this week, as we predicted. Hang Seng is likely to go sideway from 16000 to 18000 levels for the rest of the years.
- S&P500 likely wise moves little, up by 0.73% for the week. US equity market will likely has no clear direction before the Sep rate cut.
- Gold retrieves little by less than 0.5% against a half year uprising trend that has accumulated to 23.6% up from half year ago.
HEW: Pushback to Inconsistent Pricing
- Resilient activity data does not align with tight policy rates, suggesting deep cuts may not be necessary. Despite the resilience and loosening conditions enjoyed by equities, they should not occur simultaneously. The proximity of equities and GBP to their peaks creates an unattractive asymmetry.
- Next week, stretched market pricing may overshadow other factors due to a sparse data calendar and widespread late summer holidays.
- The main event to look out for is the Flash EA inflation for August, with forecasts indicating a potential renewed slowdown in headline figures, aligning closely with the consensus.
💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
Sign Up for Free
The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network
- ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
- ✓ Personalised Alerts
- ✓ Custom Watchlists
- ✓ Company Data and News
- ✓ Events & Webinars
