In today’s briefing:
- Long Volatility & Gold, Caution on Equities, and Short Dollar & Oil Under Trump 2.0
- Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments | 15 Mar 2024
- CX Daily: Behind China’s Struggle To Bring Down Drug-Resistant TB
- South Korea: Recovery Ontrack But Watch for Inflation
Long Volatility & Gold, Caution on Equities, and Short Dollar & Oil Under Trump 2.0
- Trump secures Republican nomination. Trump v/s Biden again. Volatility will the biggest winner. Gold will thrive on rising geopolitical tensions.
- Equities will face headwinds during Trump 2.0. European stocks and EM equities will underperform with anticipated trade restrictions and protectionism.
- USD will weaken. Oil prices will fall. Defense sector will benefit from rising tensions and reduced US role in NATO and the world at large.
Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments | 15 Mar 2024
- Recent CPI data in the US suggests no imminent interest rate cuts, with inflation running above 3%.
- Exploration in Shenzhen revealed ongoing deflationary trends and significant spending from older individuals, posing challenges for Hong Kong’s property market.
- China’s electric vehicle revolution is evident in Shenzhen, with widespread adoption and rapid advancements in charging infrastructure and technology.
CX Daily: Behind China’s Struggle To Bring Down Drug-Resistant TB
- Tuberculosis / In Depth: Behind China’s struggle to bring down drug-resistant TB
- TikTok /: U.S. House passes bill that will ban TikTok if not sold
- Explosion /: Death toll of North China restaurant blast rises to seven
South Korea: Recovery Ontrack But Watch for Inflation
- Net exports returned to growth for South Korea in 4Q23’s GDP, contributing to continued momentum towards an economic recovery.
- Conditions for the manufacturing industry are also positive, with the pivotal semiconductors industry exhibiting a strong rebound. Firm sentiment also remained positive.
- Inflation, however, remains sticky with even core inflation remaining flat from the previous month. We do not expect rate cuts given the growth-inflation balance.
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