In today’s briefing:
- Liquidity Watch: The $ liquidity outlook remains solid for Q3
- Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 21 Jun 2024
- [ETP 25/2024] Energy Majors Bounce Back; Their Expansion Spree Continues
- UK: Retail Seasonally Recovers in Dry May
- CX Daily: Rough Market Doomed Syngenta Listing Plans
- HEW: Bias Determines Data Dependence
Liquidity Watch: The $ liquidity outlook remains solid for Q3
- The liquidity outlook always makes for interesting discussions and after a few minor hiccups in liquidity proxies both in the USD space and the GBP space, we are getting increasingly cautious central bank behavior to see in the liquidity space.
- We therefore see generally benign liquidity conditions ahead for H2-2024 in sharp contrast to predictions from the nay-sayers!Let’s have a look at the details.
- Liquidity conditions have generally improved since the drawdown during tax season in April/May and we are trending higher now.
Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 21 Jun 2024
- China’s Economic Performance: Despite negative media reports, China shows strong year-on-year growth in industrial production and retail sales, outperforming other major economies.
Misreported Inflation: China meets the 2% inflation target better than most, with misconceptions about deflation being clarified in recent reports.
Japan’s Economic Struggles: Japan’s export growth appears positive in yen but declines in USD terms, reflecting weak domestic demand.
[ETP 25/2024] Energy Majors Bounce Back; Their Expansion Spree Continues
- The gap between OPEC and IEA’s oil demand forecasts widened: OPEC kept its 2024 forecast at 2.25m bpd, while IEA lowered its forecast to 960k bpd from 1.1m bpd.
- Europe’s attempt to cut Russian LNG imports grows stronger, as the French Senate Committee recommends cutting Russian dependence.
- Since 17/June, Energy majors began recovering. Berkshire increased its holdings in Occidental, while Shell expanded its LNG market access by acquiring Pavilion Energy.
UK: Retail Seasonally Recovers in Dry May
- UK retail sales more than fully recovered from April’s crash in May, although neither move looks like a fundamental signal. The early Easter explains half the volatility.
- A return to a seasonably average number of rainy days and warmth explains the other half of May’s resurgence and possibly most of the substantial surprise to the consensus.
- Consumer weakness seems asymmetrically relevant to the dovishly biased MPC. The rebound will not prevent it from announcing a premature rate cut in August.
CX Daily: Rough Market Doomed Syngenta Listing Plans
- Syngenta / In Depth: Rough market doomed Syngenta listing plans
Boeing / Boeing’s setbacks open the skies for China’s C919 to take off
Russia-North Korea / Russia and North Korea have ‘normal needs’ to develop their relationship, China’s Vice Foreign Minister says
HEW: Bias Determines Data Dependence
- Services inflation exceeded expectations in the EA and the UK, leading to the BoE’s first rate cut from June to August. Retail sales also saw a resurgence.
- Monetary policy decisions are due next week for Sweden, the Philippines, Mexico, and Colombia.
- Data highlights for the upcoming period include inflation in the US, France, Italy, and Spain, along with the Euro area’s ESI.
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