Daily Brief Macro: Liquidity and more

• Global Liquidity Cycle bottomed last October. Noticeable acceleration, particularly in US dollar terms at near 30% annualized clip
• China and Japan are the key Central Banks leading the charge. Yet, even the US Fed is stirring, with net liquidity injections seeming targeting stable bank reserve levels
• Financial markets have already felt this liquidity boost, particularly liquidity-sensitive instruments like tech shares, gold and Bitcoin. The World economy too is stirring

In the next installment of our Webinar Wednesdays, we go live with Smartkarma Insight Provider, David Coloretti, CMT as he will share more on the H1 2023 global market outlook from a technical analysis perspective. 2008 and 2022 were his most profitable trading years of the past 3 decades. This was possible due to a razor sharp focus on momentum confirmation and the correct use of freely available momentum indicators. In this webinar he will use these same techniques to provide a high probability outlook for global markets in H1 2023

The webinar will be hosted on Wednesday, 8 February 2023, 17:00 SGT/HKT.

David Coloretti is a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) and a full member of the Market Technicians Association of New York. David is the Managing Director of The Markets Academy Pty Ltd (TMA), an independent research firm based in Australia. TMA delivers a technical analysis / strategy subscription service in G10 and Asian financial markets, primarily to Asia’s leading hedge funds and banks. David’s career spans 30+ years as a technical analyst across senior trading, sales and strategy roles. Prior to establishing TMA in 2013, David worked for BP, Credit Suisse, Citi, Barcap and RBS in Australia and Singapore. 

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• Politics / China completes provincial leadership reshuffle ahead of ‘Two Sessions’

• The AFC Uzbekistan Fund began 2023 in positive territory even though the economy suffered a setback due to a “once-in-a-generation” cold snap which spiralled into a domestic energy crisis.
• Aside from the cold, during the month, Clearstream paid a visit to Uzbekistan to advance discussions on establishing a custody link for foreign investors, and the over-the-counter stock exchange “Elsis-Savdo” was brought under the management of the Tashkent Stock Exchange.
• Relative to the past twelve months, with a lack of news flow, January was a busy and positive month for Uzbekistan’s capital markets. The January 2023 fund NAV rose to an estimated USD 1,762.8 (+1.5%) or +76.3% since inception on 29th March 2019.

• We have focused on speed as a concept since Covid back in Spring 2020.
• Long time readers will recall Covid Speed – speed of spread, speed of policy response, speed of market reaction etc.
• We followed that up with a piece on Climate Speed which led us to conclude that Climate is the single biggest global macro theme of the decade with every country in the world spending money on it between now & 2030.