In today’s briefing:
- Labor Market Watch: The Final Nail in the Coffin?
- EA: Narrow HICP Slowing in Mar-23
- Newly Leased Space in Beijing Prime Office Buildings Plunges 21%
- UK: Inflation Incinerating BoE Hopes
- CX Daily: Long Tethered to Apple, Chinese Suppliers Seek New Options
Labor Market Watch: The Final Nail in the Coffin?
- Close to all timely indicators show a weakening labor market
- Nominal wage growth is diminishing, but real wages rise on the back of dwindling inflation
- The US economy WILL be in a recession in 2023 – but risk assets could still thrive a little longer
EA: Narrow HICP Slowing in Mar-23
- The final EA HICP inflation print confirmed the steep drop to 6.88% in Mar-23, close to the similarly unsurprising ex-tobacco rate amid marginal news in the details.
- There wasn’t much room for seasonal normalisation from January’s cuts. Other price rises remained broadly excessive, supporting underlying inflation measures.
- The ECB needs to tighten policy further to break economic excesses and achieve its target. So we still expect 25bps rate hikes at its May and June meetings.
Newly Leased Space in Beijing Prime Office Buildings Plunges 21%
- Office leasing in Beijing plunged 21% in the first quarter from the fourth, according to real estate service provider CBRE Group Inc., signaling businesses’ reluctance to expand in a shaky post-pandemic economy.
- The data reflect newly leased areas in prime office buildings. The number of deals signed to expand office space rental in Grade A office buildings in Beijing dropped 6% during the first three months from the last three months of 2022.
- The average expansion area of office rental decreased from 1,700 square meters to 1,400 square meters on a quarter-to-quarter basis, data from CBRE showed.
UK: Inflation Incinerating BoE Hopes
- Inflation slowed by less than expected in Mar-23 to 10.1% on the CPI (RPI 13.5%). That 0.3pp CPI surprise (14bps for us) worryingly follows a 0.5pp miss last month.
- This upside news was painfully broad-based again as services and core inflation ran hot. The underlying monthly impulse is resisting a return toward target-consistent rates.
- Excessive pressures are proving painfully resilient, with a 0.9pp surprise to the BoE’s forecast incinerating their dovish hopes. We still expect another 25bps hike in May.
CX Daily: Long Tethered to Apple, Chinese Suppliers Seek New Options
- Apple /: In Depth: Long tethered to Apple, Chinese suppliers seek new options
- GDP /: China’s first-quarter GDP grows 4.5% on pickup in consumption, industrial production
- Banking /: Citic Bank promotes president Fang Heying to chairman
💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
Sign Up for Free
The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network
- ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
- ✓ Personalised Alerts
- ✓ Custom Watchlists
- ✓ Company Data and News
- ✓ Events & Webinars
