In today’s briefing:
- Japan Watch: 1% with Added Flexibility – More or Less Printing from Here?
- CX Daily: Interview With Indonesian President Joko Widodo: A Unifying ‘Outsider’
- Portfolio Watch: Surfing the boomer wave
- Gold, Yen and Finding the Recession
- TPW Advisory Friday Musings: What’s Next?
Japan Watch: 1% with Added Flexibility – More or Less Printing from Here?
- The Bank of Japan moved the needle on the 10yr YCC from an effective cap 0.5% to a new effective cap at 1% but with a larger flexibility being introduced to the setup.
- This also means that JGBs are now effectively tradeable again and that two-way-traffic is introduced as the BoJ can decide to guide the 10yr point both higher and lower within the accepted range given incoming data on prices ahead.
- This is very different from just communicating a new clear cap and the 10yr yield is trading around +56 bps on the screens by the time of writing.
CX Daily: Interview With Indonesian President Joko Widodo: A Unifying ‘Outsider’
- Joko Widodo /: Interview with Indonesian President Joko Widodo: A unifying ‘outsider’
- IPO /: China’s first U.S. IPO under new listing rules moves a step closer
- Economy /: Half of China’s provinces fall behind the national economy
Portfolio Watch: Surfing the boomer wave
- Hello everyone and welcome back for our weekly Portfolio Watch!We have had a great week here with our book as we have switched exposure from US Tech & AI to old-school stuff.
- Energy, Materials and Commodities are our favorites on a risk/reward basis.
- Our models here keep getting backed by hard data and with commodities- our thesis here is a temporary rebound in Manufacturing:Chart 1: ISM Manufacturing, Order/InventoryWith Goldilocks data ramping up, we have enjoyed some nice green tailwinds to the book.
Gold, Yen and Finding the Recession
- Finally, we see the beginning of the long-anticipated monetary normalisation in Japan.
- This is the only country in the world to still have negative interest rates, which is odd given inflation has been rising, albeit modestly to Western Economies.
- This ultra-loose policy has seen bond yields remain close to zero while the yen has slumped.
TPW Advisory Friday Musings: What’s Next?
- It’s been a white-knuckle ride for much of the past 6-9 months but what a ride it’s been!
- I had a similar experience last weekend up in the country. Rain had fallen for much of the prior week and road washouts had occurred in multiple spots near our camping locale.
- Nonetheless, when we hit the mighty Deerfield River last Sunday I was determined to do what we do every year which is to ride the rapids bareback – i.e. no tubes.
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