In today’s briefing:
- Inflation Watch: A Short-Lived Acquaintance, or in the Euro Zone to Stay?
- Ukrainian Spring Offensive – 3 Things Investors Should Look Out For
- RCEP Is Benefitting China, but Not ASEAN; Latter Gains US Market-Share
- CX Daily: China’s Struggle to Unify Localized Health Insurance
Inflation Watch: A Short-Lived Acquaintance, or in the Euro Zone to Stay?
- There are reasons to lean DOVISH on inflation in the short-term
- Medium-Term prospects are much more muddy in Europe due to sticky wage inflation.
- According to market pricing, we will see peak hawkishness from the ECB (Overnight index swaps) around September/October
Ukrainian Spring Offensive – 3 Things Investors Should Look Out For
- The Ukrainian Spring Offensive is underway! What should investors look out for?
- Read about Black Sea Shipping, Migrant Pressure on the West and Baltic Sea Sabotage
- Be prepared for the coming offensive and how Putin might respond
RCEP Is Benefitting China, but Not ASEAN; Latter Gains US Market-Share
- In 2022 (the first year with the RCEP fully operational), ASEAN’s bilateral trade deficit with China nearly doubled to US$163bn, while China’s surpluses with Japan and Korea shrank.
- RCEP entailed the reduction in tariffs, but non-tariff barriers (China’s primary form of protection for its economy) remained unaffected. Ironically, China has seen big unilateral gains from implementation of RCEP.
- The imposition of higher US tariffs since 2019, and tighter export controls since 2022, has shrunk China’s bilateral trade surplus with the US, while boosting the rest of Asia’s surpluses.
CX Daily: China’s Struggle to Unify Localized Health Insurance
Health insurance / In Depth: China’s struggle to unify localized health insurance
Diplomat / Chinese embassy in France plays down Ambassador Lu’s remarks on ex-Soviet states
Sudan / Chinese nationals evacuated from conflict-hit Sudan
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