In today’s briefing:
- Indonesia: 2024 Presidential Election Is Shaping Up Into A 3-Horse Race
- China: Stimulus Is Flowing Through, But Challenges Abound
- Singapore Monetary Policy: Another Move In April 2023 Looks Likely
- The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – TAC, Sea Ltd, and SCG Packaging
- UK: Fiscal Oh-Turn
- The Commodity Report #73
Indonesia: 2024 Presidential Election Is Shaping Up Into A 3-Horse Race
- Three key factors will shape the 2024 race: First, the qualities that the candidates themselves bring to the contest.
- Second, political parties are re-positioning themselves for the 2024 elections. The Gerindra party moved first to nominate Prabowo as its presidential candidate, while non-aligned parties did the same with Anies.
- The popular incumbent President Jokowi retains sufficient political clout to have a strong say. He will want to ensure that a candidate who will preserve his reform agenda succeeds him.
China: Stimulus Is Flowing Through, But Challenges Abound
- China may finally be inching towards a turnaround, according to the latest data.
- The recent monetary data show that stimulus is finally flowing through to the real economy.
- But whether that is sufficient to offset weak demand, real estate sector weakness and zero-Covid measures remains moot.
Singapore Monetary Policy: Another Move In April 2023 Looks Likely
- The MAS tightened monetary policy again, responding forcefully to inflationary pressures which have clearly intensified since the off-cycle monetary tightening in July.
- Further tightening in April 2023 or even earlier in another off-cycle meeting cannot be ruled out as multiple upside risks to inflation remain, from wage pressures and imported inflation.
- The SGD1.5bn package to help lower-to-middle income groups cope with inflation will add to inflationary pressures too.
The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – TAC, Sea Ltd, and SCG Packaging
- The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across South East Asia.
- The past week saw insights on Total Access Communication, Betagro IPO, SCG Packaging, Sea Ltd (SE US), Bank Rakyat Indonesia, and Star Petroleum Refining in Thailand.
- There was also some macro commentary on Malaysia and the Philippines, a market strategy note in Thailand, and updates on the energy and petroleum sector there.
UK: Fiscal Oh-Turn
- The embattled UK government has binned almost all its announced tax cuts and its policy platform. Most were reversing previous hikes, so policies go full circle.
- Household energy prices will surge for at least some in Apr-23. We hope it will merely cap the units of cheap energy to avoid stoking inflation statistics and monetary policy.
- Cancelling fiscal stimulus reduces hawkish pressure on the BoE. It does not negate the realised volatility discouraging UK investments nor fix the macroeconomic outlook.
The Commodity Report #73
- Respect the trend – inflation continues to trend down but also continues to surprise on the upside in terms of analysts’ expectations.
- Getting inflation back into the target corridor will be a slow and painful process as inflation is broadly driven by the components of shelter, transportation services, medical services, and not only food and energy, which get the most headlines in the newspaper.
- On the other hand, we’re on the right track, as the YoY comparisons have declined since July.
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