In today’s briefing:
- Indian Producers Anticipate Higher Prices Till December
- In China: THE SKY FALLING? In the US: TREES GROW TO THE SKY?
- Words Speak Louder Than Actions?
- Central Bank Watch: Key Patterns from Previous Cycles
- Positioning Watch – Markets Anticipate a 50bps Cut Tonight
- China Mobilizes Non-Bank Financial Firms to Drive Industrial Upgrades
- CX Daily: Why and How China’s Overhauling Monetary Policy (Part 3)
- BoE Holds Gaze On November
- Norway Policy Rate 4.5% (consensus 4.5%) in Sep-24
Indian Producers Anticipate Higher Prices Till December
- Prices showing uptrend after a marginal slide in recent times
- Kerala climate conducive for production, leading to good yield
- More regions in bid to expand rubber area buoyed by higher prices
In China: THE SKY FALLING? In the US: TREES GROW TO THE SKY?
- China continues to be the outcast of the investment community even though its GDP is still projected to grow by 4.5% to 5% this year.
- China’s economy has substantial hurdles to overcome but is not in the dire situation portrayed by most commentators and not headed for “Japanification”.
- On the other hand, the US economy has steadied itself but is not in the “Goldilocks” period implied by the media.
Words Speak Louder Than Actions?
- The FOMC announced a 50bps cut at the September meeting, but Chair Powell hemmed and hawed on future rate cuts
- The eye catching market volatility before and after Powell’s presser elevates the importance of effective Fed communication
- The latest market-pricing for the funds rate, though far from settled, is roughly in-line with a no-recession scenario currently
Central Bank Watch: Key Patterns from Previous Cycles
- The FOMC meeting is upon us later today, and that calls for us to publish another short and concise chart-book of asset performances around the first Fed cuts in a historical context.
- Consensus is more or less split evenly between 25 and 50 bps, but there are a few pockets in asset space that performs for (at least) the next couple of weeks regardless of the outcome today if you are to trust history.
- The format is a BUNCH of charts, with short and concise text – so scroll through and enjoy!
Positioning Watch – Markets Anticipate a 50bps Cut Tonight
- Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning update.
- Today’s version will be short and to the point, allowing you time to digest the meeting later today.
- It serves as a quick summary of the signals we are picking up across our real-time monitors of hedge fund positioning across various assets.
China Mobilizes Non-Bank Financial Firms to Drive Industrial Upgrades
- China’s National Financial Regulatory Administration is urging non-bank financial institutions to improve support for businesses that want to upgrade machinery and to back programs that encourage the trade-in of consumer goods, measures that are gaining momentum in China.
- The administration’s recently issued notice comes as China’s central bank has established a 500 billion yuan ($70 billion) special re-lending fund to help steer financial institutions toward improving support for technological innovation and transformation.
- Now efforts are expanding to non-bank financial institutions, including insurance companies, investment firms, leasing companies and consumer finance companies, which are being urged to enhance their business models and investment to support the transition to intelligent, eco-friendly industrial developments.
CX Daily: Why and How China’s Overhauling Monetary Policy (Part 3)
- Monetary / Caixin Explains: Why and How China is overhauling monetary policy (Part 3)
- Huawei /Cover Story: Huawei’s smart car ambitions face hurdles as it seeks to replicate Aito’s success
- Corruption /: Ex-education vice minister targeted in corruption probe
BoE Holds Gaze On November
- The BoE matched widespread expectations by holding the Bank rate at 5.00%, albeit with the lone dissent (Swati Dhingra) matching our relatively hawkish forecast.
- Little news was seen in UK indicators. Broadly reduced market rate paths and increased uncertainty around near-term global activity could not overcome cautious inertia.
- November was unsurprisingly identified as the occasion for the MPC to fully assess news, consistent with cuts aligning with MPR forecasts and the current consensus.
Norway Policy Rate 4.5% (consensus 4.5%) in Sep-24
- The Norges Bank kept its policy rate at 4.5%, aligning with expectations, as it aims to balance disinflationary efforts with the costs of subdued economic growth.
- While inflation has declined significantly, elevated wage growth and weak productivity continue to drive business costs higher, complicating the disinflation process.
- The policy rate is expected to remain unchanged until the end of 2024, with potential easing in 2025, though uncertainties surrounding the krone depreciation and economic growth may prompt adjustments.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.
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