In today’s briefing:
- In A Bitcoin Frenzy; Long BTC Miners & Short BTC
- UK: Growing Through Pay Blip
- CX Daily: Record River of Graft Leads to Death Penalty for One-Time Water Official
- USD CPI Review – A slightly hawkish surprise
- US Rates Nugget: More stagflation confusion from the NFIB
In A Bitcoin Frenzy; Long BTC Miners & Short BTC
- BTC’s phenomenal +57% surge since September is propelled by key forces—ETF euphoria, a robust “Risk On” asset bull run, regulatory clarity, and the imminent BTC halving.
- While BTC maintains resilience, mining firms, exemplified by Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI), have seen a 30% underperformance over the last 3 months.
- Mining firms that have scaled up hash-rate over the past year and built up BTC holdings to support outperformance to BTC. However, ample cash reserves are vital.
UK: Growing Through Pay Blip
- Adjusted UK labour market data report the unemployment rate at 4.2% again, with activity levels continuing to trend higher. Lower weekly job vacancies look seasonal.
- Wages retreated in October after September’s surge, shocking expectations. Without revisions, which are consistently higher, growth may settle near 6% in the new year.
- Wage settlements are resilient while the unemployment rate has stopped rising, suggesting the cyclical slowdown is ending prematurely, sustaining hawkish pressures.
CX Daily: Record River of Graft Leads to Death Penalty for One-Time Water Official
- Corruption / Cover Story: Record river of graft leads to death penalty for one-time water official
Telecom fraud /: Chinese police issue wanted notices on 10 Myanmar cybercrime ring leaders
Macro /: China’s top leadership pledges stronger focus on growth next year
USD CPI Review – A slightly hawkish surprise
- Conclusions up front: A hawkish CPI surprise, especially in the details
- The FOMC can construct both a dovish and a hawkish narrative based on the data
- Several indicators point to a re-acceleration in underlying price pressures
US Rates Nugget: More stagflation confusion from the NFIB
- As per usual, we get some of the most interesting early evidence on inflation already ahead of the monthly CPI report with the release of the NFIB survey conducted among mostly service-based SMEs.
- Price plans accelerated again over the past month, which is a headfake pattern that we have seen ahead of earlier recessions for example in 2007/2008, but…
- Paired with rising compensation plans, it makes for an odd and almost stagflationary cocktail.
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