In today’s briefing:
- HEW: Payback In Trade And Pricing
- Heavy Metal Trade War
- Plant-based Butadiene Emerges, Thanks To Zeon And Yokohama
- [ETP 2025/11] Weak Demand and Trade Tensions Weigh on Crude, Volatile Weather Pressures Henry Hub
- Investment Shifts in Oil & Gas Giants: Institutional Moves in Q4 2024
- CX Daily: Home Appliance Exports Grow as Makers Eye Emerging, High-End Markets
HEW: Payback In Trade And Pricing
- Equities are facing difficulties due to unpredictable trade policies and retaliations, which are affecting profit forecasts. Despite this, hard data remains strong, although low airfares are impacting the US CPI. There has been a decrease in optimism about Europe.
- The Federal Reserve and the Bank of England are likely to maintain current interest rates in the coming week as there are no clear signs of a downturn. Two MPC members are expected to dissent for a 25bp cut to avoid acknowledging a previous error.
- Other upcoming announcements include those from the Bank of Japan, the Swiss National Bank, and the Riksbank.
Heavy Metal Trade War
- Volatility in US trade policy continues a cleaner tightening trend against China in the well-established tech war. Tariffs are a tool, but so are export restrictions.
- China expanded restrictions on rare earth mineral exports to license critical materials like tungsten. The West lacks friendly suppliers and struggles to develop alternatives.
- European defence investments may flounder. Japan and Korea may also suffer, so they can indirectly frustrate the US. Aggressive trade policy hits volumes as well as prices.
Plant-based Butadiene Emerges, Thanks To Zeon And Yokohama
- Zeon will develop BR and Yokohama will make tires with it
- Facility to be installed at Zeon’s Tokuyama Plant in Shunan City in Japan
- Trial production scheduled for 2026 and mass production by 2030
[ETP 2025/11] Weak Demand and Trade Tensions Weigh on Crude, Volatile Weather Pressures Henry Hub
- For the week ending 07/Mar, US crude inventories increased by 1.4m barrels, missing expectations of a 2.1m barrel build. Meanwhile, gasoline and distillate stockpiles fell more than expected.
- US natural gas inventories fell by 62 Bcf for the week ending 07/Mar, lower than analyst expectations of a 46 Bcf drawdown. Inventories are 11.9% below the 5-year seasonal average.
- SNB Capital and United Securities cut Aramco’s price targets. TotalEnergies CEO expects LNG prices to decline by decade’s end.
Investment Shifts in Oil & Gas Giants: Institutional Moves in Q4 2024
- Norges Bank repurchased sizable stakes in BP, Chevron, Exxon, Halliburton, and SLB after fully exiting these positions in Q3, mirroring its Q2 buying spree.
- Mediolanum International Funds sold its entire BP stake, Westwood Global Investments exited Shell, and Old Mission Capital divested from TotalEnergies.
- BlackRock, State Street, and J.P. Morgan reduced their stakes in Chevron, while BNY Mellon and UBS Group increased their holdings.
CX Daily: Home Appliance Exports Grow as Makers Eye Emerging, High-End Markets
- Home appliance / China’s home appliance exports grow as makers eye emerging, high-end markets
- Stocks /: China’s Two Sessions report boosts investor confidence, as stocks upgraded to ‘overweight’
- Power /In Depth: Chemical plant with its own power grid proves viability of disruptive model
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