In today’s briefing:
- HEW: BoE Lunges Hopefully After ECB
- Portfolio Watch: Reflation is back!
- Norway CPI Inflation 3.6% y-o-y (consensus 3.5%) in Apr-24
HEW: BoE Lunges Hopefully After ECB
- Central bank decisions came as expected with cuts or cautious progress towards them, but the Bank of England’s unexpected guidance disrupted predictions and market pricing. An August cut is now anticipated, though there are concerns it could be a mistake.
- Next week, macro data is expected to drive the market more, with US inflation data due on Wednesday, UK labour market data on Tuesday, and ongoing updates on HICP, GDP, and employment around the Euro Area.
- The only notable rate decision expected is from the Philippines.
Portfolio Watch: Reflation is back!
- We were honestly puzzled by the weakness in Manufacturing PMIs in April as our models pointed in the other direction.
- The timely data delivered by daily congestion numbers point in a positive direction (also adjusted for seasonality), which is typically a strong sign that the lagging consumption numbers (of energy, food and the likes) will see upside.
- The congestion based now-cast from ports, roads and air data sources point to 5-6% YoY increase still and the US truck market demand index rebounded in the first few weeks of May as well after a soft path in April.
Norway CPI Inflation 3.6% y-o-y (consensus 3.5%) in Apr-24
- Norway’s CPI inflation decreased from 3.9% to 3.6% year-on-year in April 2024, slightly exceeding market expectations of 3.5%.
- The small decline in inflation was driven by an unexpected increase in core inflation.
- Core inflation was at 4.4%, 0.1pp higher than market expectations.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.
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