Daily Brief Macro: Here is What We Told Hedge Funds This Week—and How We’re Trading It! and more

• Happy Friday! Every week, we dive deep into macro trends, analyze asset movements, and uncover the best value plays in the world of macro.
• These insights are shared with hedge funds and institutional clients, and each Friday, we’re bringing them directly to you.
• While the macro landscape can be complex, we believe it doesn’t have to be intimidating.

• The US oil and gas rig count fell by 1 to 582 for the week ending on 27/Nov, reporting a third consecutive weekly fall.
• For the week ending 22/Nov, US oil production rose to 13.49m bpd from 13.2m bpd the week prior. US output inched close to its all-time high of 13.5m bpd.
• The number of active US oil rigs fell by two to 477, the lowest since July. Conversely, the US gas rig count rose by one to 100.

• Happy Sunday, friends, and welcome to my straight-to-the-point editorial on everything macro!Just as everyone had concluded that Trump and his (alleged) trade wars would be bond-unfriendly, the bond market has started performing much better—exactly as we suggested would happen following the election results.
• The first major difference compared to 2016, when bonds rioted after Trump’s victory, is that Trump was the clear base case this time around.
• The second major difference is that Trump’s policy mix is not inflationary this time—in fact, it’s quite the opposite.

• Europe’s economic underperformance is overpriced, with labor cost increases exceeding target-consistent levels.
• Current activity trends indicate a nearly neutral monetary policy.
• The Bank of England is expected to maintain its position, while the European Central Bank and Federal Reserve are predicted to cut 25 basis points, with cuts likely to cease early in 2025.

• Trump announced potential tariff policies on social media targeting Canada and Mexico, leading to a weakening in both currencies.
• Trump appointed key members to his economic team, setting the tone for his administration’s policies.
• Markets are anticipating the Fed meeting in December, with expectations of a dovish hold and strong labor market reports.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• The past week saw insights on Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ), Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ), Sariguna Primatirta Tbk PT (CLEO IJ), and Siloam International Hospitals (SILO IJ)
• There were also insights on Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia (ACES IJ), Delta Electronics Thailand (DELTA TB), the upcoming index rebalancing in Thailand, and top picks in the Philippines from Sameer Taneja. 
• The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom, from across Southeast Asia.

• In October, Mexico received USD 5.723 billion in remittances, accumulating a balance of USD 54 billion so far this year (2.2% YoY).
• This suggests that remittances could reach a record high of close to USD 65.5 billion this year.
• Given the 20% depreciation of the national currency against the dollar along 2024, remittances have increased again in pesos, reaching 1,153 billion pesos.

• Goldman Thinks Commodities Will Outperform in 2025 Gold will rally to a record next year on central-bank buying and US interest rate cuts, according to Goldman Sachs – putting out a price target of $3.000 USD till end of 2025.
• The bank sees a sideways market in crude as its base case.
• The bank sees a sideways market in crude as its base case. “In our baseline forecast, we continue to see oil prices as range-bound, with Brent likely to stay in a $70-$85/bbl range. I