In today’s briefing:
- Heard From Fortress Hill: Weekly Market Observations (2 Aug 2024)
- US July Job Reports: Shifting Away to Services Sector
Heard From Fortress Hill: Weekly Market Observations (2 Aug 2024)
- The FED FOMC ended on Thursday and most analysts predict two to three rate cuts this year, while we forecast there will only be an one off rate cut.
- Our forecast already incorporate the nil prediction we were aiming at earlier, since the FOMC members have leaked their intents towards more rate cut.
- But we are still affirmative that there will only be a one-off rate cut this September, as various currencies like JPY have rebounded visibly.
US July Job Reports: Shifting Away to Services Sector
- Employers added just 114,000 jobs in July — 35% fewer than expected — and unemployment, now at 4.3%, is the highest since October 2021, the Labor Department reported Friday.
- Hourly wages rose just 3.6% from July 2023, the smallest year-over-year gain since May 2021, and another sign that inflation could be heading closer to the Fed’s target.
- July job gains were concentrated in healthcare and social assistance firms, which added 64,000 jobs last month, accounting for 56% of hiring. Restaurants, hotels and bars added nearly 26,000 jobs.
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