In today’s briefing:
- Guns, Germs, and Greening Mean More Government Spending
- China Watch: The Reopening Play Vol 2
- Positioning Watch: Does Positioning and Fund Flows Unfog the Ambiguity Ruling Markets?
- FDI into Asia Stages a Post-Pandemic Comeback
- Wage Watch: The Recession Without Job Losses – 7 Charts on US Employment
Guns, Germs, and Greening Mean More Government Spending
- Even as governments attempt to normalize fiscal policy following the massive expansions induced by the pandemic, long-run structural factors point to increased fiscal pressures.
- Older and sicker populations, a deteriorating security environment, and climate change will induce additional demands on government spending in health, defence, and environmental areas.
- In the long run, there are few alternatives to broad-based tax and spending reforms for Asian economies to develop the fiscal capacity to address these challenges.
China Watch: The Reopening Play Vol 2
- The abiding tale of a Chinese reopening has been about as labile as pundits’ conviction of a soft landing.
- Now, it seems data has finally arrived to firmly lay to rest the debate whether a reopening would show.
- What better time then to unwrap and examine the implications for markets again?
Positioning Watch: Does Positioning and Fund Flows Unfog the Ambiguity Ruling Markets?
- The net selling of equities in the SPY ETF (S&P 500) evidently continues. The evidence that investors want to chase the market higher here remains very limited.
- History has been hard on those betting against the USD, and that may be a reason for traders to be reluctant
- The broad commodities index, BCOM, is in a full blown nosedive bearing with it the benefit of fading inflation
FDI into Asia Stages a Post-Pandemic Comeback
- The ongoing structural changes in the green transition and economic digitalization will make these sectors future drivers of foreign investment activity in the region.
- International business confidence in China continues to deteriorate. China’s competitors will take advantage of the resulting production relocation.
- Governments will also be seeking to improve the quality of FDI inflows to better achieve domestic policy goals such as industrial upgrading and high-value job creation
Wage Watch: The Recession Without Job Losses – 7 Charts on US Employment
- Is this a recession without any major job losses in the US economy?
- Large lay-offs have been seen in Tech, Finance and Retail in recent months
- But Leisure/Entertainment jobs are booming. Here are 7 charts on the US labour market right now
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