In today’s briefing:
- Global Recession Beginning
- The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Ciputra Development, Matahari Department Store, and BliBli.
- The Commodity Report #74
Global Recession Beginning
- Global manufacturing returned to its downtrend in October, with the US, EA and UK all appearing to face falls. All their services sectors are also now declining.
- Unemployment has not yet turned higher. Until that happens, any easing of wage pressures will only come from demand where there is a backlog of vacancies.
- Monetary policymakers are reconciled to the fact that a recession may be needed to curb inflation. Rate hikes should slow when success is evident, hopefully soon.
The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Ciputra Development, Matahari Department Store, and BliBli.
- The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across South East Asia.
- The past week saw insights published on Ciputra Development, Arwana Citramulia, Matahari Department Store, Blibli, Total Access Communication, and Singapore Medical.
- There were also insights on Siam Makro Public, Plan B Media, and the upcoming SET rebalancing in December which should benefit Berli Jucker.
The Commodity Report #74
- Inventories of copper in warehouses run by exchanges such as the LME do not provide a complete picture of copper stocks in the supply chain since many industrial users will hold their own reserves of the metal.
- But visible stocks can have a significant influence on sentiment in the market.
- It’s just striking how negative the financial markets are about this industry, yet the physical market is so tight.
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