In today’s briefing:
- Global Liquidity: Where Are We In The Cycle?
- Manufacturing Nugget: The Inflation Refueling Act?
- CX Daily: Chinese Battery Makers Gird For Price War In Competition To Supply EV Producers
- Inflation Watch: A bottom above 2%? 10 charts on USD inflation
- The Great Game – Who’s more powerful, Joe Biden or Kim Kardashian?
- UK: Cycle Burn-Out Partly Seasonal
- The Energy Cable #37 – The good old fossil fuels are back in business
Global Liquidity: Where Are We In The Cycle?
- Everything is bottoming! Global Liquidity, stock markets, bond term premia, the World economy and even inflation pressures
- We remain upbeat towards risk assets , but must acknowledge that the big gains are likely over for a while given gathering duration tensions in bond markets
- The Global Liquidity cycle and asset allocation are unfolding on track in 2023. It is leading the World economy and currently sit in its Rebound investment phase
Manufacturing Nugget: The Inflation Refueling Act?
- The combination of the IRA and CSA makes up the largest investment in rural US electrification since 1936, and the most notable effect has been in construction spending within the manufacturing sector.
- Favorable terms, hereunder significant tax credits, have drawn investments like moths to a flame.
- Manufacturing construction is currently up some 70% YoY – Tailwinds for our cyclically tilted portfolio.
CX Daily: Chinese Battery Makers Gird For Price War In Competition To Supply EV Producers
- Batteries /Cover Story: Chinese battery makers gird for price war in competition to supply EV producers
- G20 /: Chinese premier meets Biden at G20
- China-U.K. /: U.K. welcomes China investment in ‘key areas,’ trade minister says
Inflation Watch: A bottom above 2%? 10 charts on USD inflation
- Welcome to our inflation watch ahead of the all-important US CPI report on Wednesday.
- Before showing our charts and models, we’d like to present you with our key take-aways up front
- Headline/energy inflation will continue to accelerate and likely to a higher degree than priced in
The Great Game – Who’s more powerful, Joe Biden or Kim Kardashian?
- Welcome to this week’s Great Game! Now, I know that we have been quite critical of the U.S. Administration and Joe Biden in particular.
- While it’s still fair to have some concerns about the well-being of the Commander-in-Chief, I think it’s time to heap some praise on his team and administration for their foreign policy work over the past months.
- This week was particularly bright for U.S. interests – let’s go over events one by one – and finish up with how Kim Kardashian might be the most popular woman in Iran!
UK: Cycle Burn-Out Partly Seasonal
- The UK unemployment rate rose as expected by another 0.1pp in July to 4.3%. This slackening trend may slow soon, having been exaggerated by residual seasonality.
- Labour demand remains elevated, but there are early signs that it is waning enough to trim wage settlements, consistent with the cycle burning out.
- Wage growth isn’t remotely consistent with the inflation target, so the BoE should keep hiking. However, it could stop in November if settlements definitively break lower.
The Energy Cable #37 – The good old fossil fuels are back in business
- Welcome back to the Energy Cable, where we always try to be concise and concrete about what’s going on in the energy space.
- The last couple of weeks have presented us with what might be a new energy bull run, as markets liked the message from the Saudis amidst a global economy that is in far better shape than feared.
- So how’s the outlook?
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