In today’s briefing:
- Global Liquidity: Looking Towards 2024
- The Weekly Market Monitor – Bad Inflation + Bad Sentiment = Bad Bounce?
Global Liquidity: Looking Towards 2024
- Global Liquidity Cycle hit a low in September 2022. It has been rising slowly since and looks set to hit a peak around 2026. Risk assets should get greater support
- Yet the large ‘carry’ on government bonds and the recent sell-off persuades us to allocate towards fixed income for the first time in two years
- There are risks. With coupon issuance is set to soar, Central Banks will be increasingly asked to finance monetary inflation
The Weekly Market Monitor – Bad Inflation + Bad Sentiment = Bad Bounce?
- Contrary to many other Sentiment Indicators – which we don’t really understand – our Fear & Frenzy Sentiment Index has moved into ‘Frenzy.’
- China is considering launching a state-backed stabilization fund to boost the Chinese stock market. We show what happened the last time China came up with a similar move.
- Even though headline and core inflation were close to expectations, the underlying data signals trouble. Powell’s favorite CPI measure, SuperCore inflation, rose 7.6% on an annualized basis in September.
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