In today’s briefing:
- Global Economic Outlook: Shifting Gears to the Downside
- US-China: A Thaw Of Sorts Soon But It Will Not Go Far
Global Economic Outlook: Shifting Gears to the Downside
- The global economic outlook has been negatively due to higher inflation, more hawkish central banks and geopolitical conflict in between Russia and Ukraine.
- The depth and duration of slower global growth hinges on the ability of central banks to raise interest rates without materially impacting labour demand.
- Elevated inflation creates a high bar for the Fed to suddenly pivot to a dovish stance. Rising service sector inflation raises the risks of the Fed remaining hawkish for longer.
US-China: A Thaw Of Sorts Soon But It Will Not Go Far
- US-China relations are moving into a new phase.: A Biden-Xi call is likely to take place soon and could pave the way for an in-person meeting in November.
- What the US and China seem to be aiming at is an understanding which ensures that their more intense strategic competition does not lead to unwanted crises or clashes.
- What will not change, however, is the increased contestation between the two nations, especially in East and Southeast Asia. Te
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