Daily Brief Macro: Global Commodities: The biggest pushback and more

• Wall Street sell-side analysts discuss feedback and questions policies regarding oil price divergence in 2025
• Consensus view among analysts suggests bearish sentiment in equity energy investors compared to forecasts
• Market projections indicate potential tighter global oil balances and reduced likelihood of disorderly price collapse following OPEC meeting in early December 2024.

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• The discussion focused on the importance of politics over economics for emerging markets in 2025, with a specific emphasis on fiscal trajectories.
• Lessons learned include the need to expand imagination of possible scenarios, the impact of specific country situations on returns, and the caution against following consensus trades.
• Market outlook for early 2025 is expected to be choppy and driven by policy announcements, with a key event being the US Inauguration Day on January 20th leading to potential market adjustments.

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• Operators high on quantum jump in exports to Malaysia
• VRA Secretary-General says Vietnam keen on fully meeting EUDR
• Major challenge variety of sources including imports and mixing

• Happy Sunday from me! This will be the last update before the festive season, and I hope you will have a relaxed and enjoyable time with your loved ones.
• It has been a big year for me personally with the launch of Asgard-Steno Global Macro.
• Despite Powell pulling the rug from under the Christmas rally, we are off to a decent start and expect to deliver strong returns in choppy markets in 2025, where the macro direction will be challenged by several factors.

• Happy Friday! Every week, we dive deep into macro trends, analyze asset movements, and uncover the best value plays in the world of macro.
• These insights are shared with hedge funds and institutional clients, and each Friday, we’re bringing them directly to you.
• While the macro landscape can be complex, we believe it doesn’t have to be intimidating.

• Global transition to low carbon economy discussed in the second episode of the Infrastructure miniseries
• Key areas of investment include electrification, renewable power plants, electric vehicle charging stations, and clean fuels
• Importance of public and private investment in infrastructure to enable energy transition and decarbonization, with a focus on long-term growth opportunities like data centers and mining infrastructure

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• While the sentiment around the “long US equities trade” seems to be extended and due for a correction, the bearish positioning in commodities and energy is reasonable and we also expect this trend to continue for a little while.
• The latest BofA fund manager survey showed how extreme the position is currently and how little cash professional investors currently have to allocate.
• FMS cash level fell from 4.3% to 3.9% of AUM, matching the lowest level since Jun ’21.

• Turbulent fundamentals, volatile weather, and uncertain geopolitics pushed US LNG implied volatility to a 12-month high of 99.47 on 20/Dec. US nat-gas prices have surged 38.2% since November 2024.
• Midstream/MLP ETFs, with low energy price correlation, stood out in 2024 as the only energy ETFs to attract inflows, while producer and refiner-focused ETFs saw outflows.
• The Alerian MLP ETF, has an AUM of USD 9.4 billion. Over the past year, it has attracted net inflows of USD 1.3 billion and offers a yield of 7.8%.

• The past week saw insights on CP Axtra (CPAXT TB), Berli Jucker (BJC TB), Mphb Capital (MPHB MK), and PT Daya Intiguna Yasa Tbk (Mr DIY Indonesia) (MDIY IJ)
• There were also macro insights on Indonesia and Thailand and further insights on Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG IJ), Geo Energy Resources (GERL SP), and the Green Tech space in Singapore.
• The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom, from across Southeast Asia.

• Federal Reserve and Bank of England both make decisions that are more dovish than expected
• Market pricing reflects uncertainty and potential easing in the future
• Central banks take steps to ensure smooth funding and liquidity in the markets, including adjustments to repo facilities and addressing debt ceiling issues.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.