Daily Brief Macro: Global Commodities: European Natural Gas: Weather and supply-side risks tighten their grip on price and more

• European natural gas market facing uncertainty due to potential end of Russian gas flows through Ukraine
• North American LNG supply delays causing imbalance in global market
• Price relationship between summer 2025 and winter 2526 dependent on weather, supply sources, and storage refill mandates

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• Donald Trump is committed to reducing energy prices by 50% within a year.
• However, uncontrollable factors may hinder this goal.
• As such, he may only achieve a modest success, if any.

• Welcome back to Macro Regime Watch, where we dive into our nowcasting models to analyze Growth, Inflation, and Liquidity trends.
• Over recent months, we’ve dedicated substantial time to upgrading our models and refining the data we use.
• But the core question remains: how do we interpret the complexities of the macro environment, and how can these insights inform financial market strategies?

• Happy Sunday, everyone! If you can’t show it in a meme, then it’s not true.
• That’s my modus operandi in the research business, and I stumbled upon this tremendous meme of the business cycle and how JPoww and his ilk respond to it.
• This has been the Fed’s operating model for a while: exaggerating the business cycle in both directions.

• Happy Friday and welcome to our weekly Portfolio Watch.
• Many have been puzzled by the weakness in US markets towards the end of the week, with explanations largely pointing to an exhaustion of the Trump trade.
• This trade had been roaring across USD, USD bond yields, USD equities, and Crypto.

• Market fluctuations in CNY and Euro currencies, potential impact of PBOC reaction function and ECB policies
• Possibility of increased pessimism in Europe not fully priced in, with potential for further downside in Euro
• Recommendations for underweight positions on Euro compared to USD, Swiss Franc, and Japanese Yen, with potential for continued market movement

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• The Ministry of Finance has decided to end the 13% export tax rebate on copper effective December 1st, 2024. Copper semi-producers rely on this rebate to remain profitable. 
• Copper semi-producers might rush to sell their inventory by 1st December when changes take effect, which may affect prices and distort differentials on the SHFE-LME. 
• As long-term bulls, we like Southern Copper (SCCO US); under 100 USD/share, it is worth exploring. We also believe a long LME short SHFE trade in the short-term could work.  

• The past week saw insights on Grab Holdings (GRAB US), Sea Ltd (SE US), Avarga Ltd (AVARGA SP), The Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM), and Jollibee Foods (JFC PM). 
• There were also insights on Shakey’s Pizza (PIZZA PM) and Bumrungrad Hospital Pub Co (BH TB) plus commentary in the AI push from Indosat and GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ).
• The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom, from across Southeast Asia.

• OPEC cut its 2024 demand growth forecast by 5.7%, marking the fourth consecutive monthly downgrade, while the EIA and IEA raised their forecasts by 7.6% and 7%, respectively.
• Although the EIA and IEA raised 2024 demand projections, they lowered 2025 estimates. They anticipate an oversupplied oil market in 2025, with supply growth expected to outpace demand.
• The EIA raised Q4 2024 oil price forecasts on geopolitical tensions and inventory withdrawals but cut post-Q2 2025 estimates due to expectations of rising inventories from higher output.

• The US oil and gas rig count fell by 1 to 584 for the week ending on 15/Nov, after remaining steady for three weeks in a row.
• For the week ending 08/Nov, US oil production inched down to 13.4m bpd after remaining at 13.5m bpd for four consecutive weeks.
• US energy producers added two rigs in New Mexico and one in Pennsylvania while cutting two rigs in Texas and one each in Oklahoma and Utah.