In today’s briefing:
- Foreign Investors Allowed to Begin Buying Korean Stocks Without Prior Authorization on 14 December
- 5 (+1) Central Banks We Watch – Fed, ECB, BoE, Norge’s Bank, BoJ & BCB
- [Counting Beans #1] Robust Soybean Exports Driving Prices Higher Despite Record Harvest
- EM by EM #34: Xi’s Whip and Powell’s Kneeling
- CX Daily: How the AI Race Has Spread From the Cloud to the Palm of Your Hand
- Mint Macro Roundup: US November CPI, Lower Oil But Higher Rent
- UK: Private Payback Flattens GDP
- COP28 Nuclear Deal – Implications for the Global Clean Energy Race
Foreign Investors Allowed to Begin Buying Korean Stocks Without Prior Authorization on 14 December
- On 13 December, the FSS announced that foreign investors will be allowed to start purchasing Korean stocks without prior authorization starting this week.
- The revised Capital Market Act will start to be implemented on 14 December repealing the time consuming and inconvenient pre-registration system for foreign investors.
- As a result of the Korean government making this change regulatory change, one of the beneficiaries is likely to be Interactive Brokers Group, Inc (IBKR US).
5 (+1) Central Banks We Watch – Fed, ECB, BoE, Norge’s Bank, BoJ & BCB
- It’s central bank week once again, and that of course calls for us to share our thoughts ahead of the biggest meeting over the next week with Powell being the first to take the stage on Wednesday, expecting to hawk up the rhetoric a bit whilst keeping the Fed funds upper band steady at 5.5%.
- The ECB has recently claimed the title as the most dovish central bank in G10 after markets have added roughly 20 bps of cuts in 2024 to market pricing, and markets now price in approx.
- 115 bps of cuts in 2024.
[Counting Beans #1] Robust Soybean Exports Driving Prices Higher Despite Record Harvest
- Research shows that El Niño results in milder weather leading to higher precipitation and consequently ~3.5% higher yield leading to depressed bean prices.
- Bean prices have outperformed seasonal trends in November and December. It is surprising given surplus inventory outlook and El Niño effect on production.
- Notifications of large export sales have driven much of the bullishness in prices over the past week. Prices are up 1.7% from last Friday’s settlement prices.
EM by EM #34: Xi’s Whip and Powell’s Kneeling
- As we move beyond the final Fed decision of the year, we can speculate on how the EM space may respond to Powell’s press conference tonight.
- Before diving into that, let’s discuss some recent developments that have occurred in China since our last update on the situation in Beijing.
- While the market and all the mainstream news outlets have been awaiting the third plenum to take place in vain, China’s Central Economic Work Conference was held the past two days.
CX Daily: How the AI Race Has Spread From the Cloud to the Palm of Your Hand
- AI / In Depth: How the AI race has spread from the cloud to the palm of your hand
- Carbon /: China climate envoy reaffirms 2030 target for peaking carbon emissions
- Standard Chartered /: Standard Chartered China unit gets securities business license
Mint Macro Roundup: US November CPI, Lower Oil But Higher Rent
- In November, CPI rose 0.1% Month-on-Month. CPI cooled to annual rate of 3.1%, in-line with expectations. Core inflation unchanged at 4%, double the Fed target.
- 2.3% MoM decline in energy prices kept inflation low while core inflation rose 0.3% MoM. Rent remains concern, shelter costs rose 0.4% MoM. Early indicators point to declining rent.
- Equities markets stronger following release. Other markets looking for further signals from FOMC meeting.
UK: Private Payback Flattens GDP
- UK GDP disappointed by falling 0.3% m-o-m in Oct-23 rather than stalling. This drop reverses the surprising strength in Sep-23 and keeps GDP’s 2023 level broadly flat.
- Payback infected industries in the private sector in both directions while funds kept pouring into the public sector. The PMI-comparable sectors have remained flat.
- We now track no GDP growth in Q4, with the productivity lost to ongoing employment growth stoking unit labour costs. The inflation outlook is inconsistent with rate cuts.
COP28 Nuclear Deal – Implications for the Global Clean Energy Race
- The COP28 in Dubai is coming to a close with COP28-president Sultan al-Jaber presenting the final resolution just this morning.
- Nearly 200 countries voted in favor of the deal which urges states to ‘move away from fossil fuel’ – a first in COP history.
- Stakeholders had been working overtime to finalize an agreement as a dispute over whether the deal should call for the phasing out or phasing down of fossil fuels was threatening to undermine the entirety of the COP28 agreement.
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