In today’s briefing:
- Europe Wants to Get Paid – 5 Feuds to Look Out For
- From Lockdown to Liftoff? China’s Reopening and the Outlook for Emerging Equities (EEM)
- CX Daily: Why China’s Lithium Firms Have Their Sights Set on Bolivia
- EA: HICP Scarcely Slows Pace in Feb-23
Europe Wants to Get Paid – 5 Feuds to Look Out For
- A disappointing wage agreement for German metal workers in November was an early indicator that trade unions will be a poor match against employers in upcoming wage negotiations.
- The 5 most important wage battlegrounds to watch in Europe in Q2-Q3 will be Germany, UK, France, Italy and the Netherlands – read full case studies below.
- Despite weak unions, current broad-based wage pressures of 4-5% is enough to keep core inflation TOO elevated in the Euro zone. The ECB has more work to do on tightening.
From Lockdown to Liftoff? China’s Reopening and the Outlook for Emerging Equities (EEM)
- China’s reopening is finally showing up in the Macro numbers. But there is still an awful lot of catching up to do.
- We look at if the China reopening provides a buying opportunity for Chinese (iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI US)) and Emerging Market (iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM US)) Equities.
- Going through the three pillars of our investment framework, Macro, Sentiment, and Valuation, we conclude that the outlook for EM Equities is slightly more attractive than for DM Equities.
CX Daily: Why China’s Lithium Firms Have Their Sights Set on Bolivia
- Lithium /: In Depth: Why China’s lithium firms have their sights set on Bolivia
- Covid-19 /: China eases requirement of negative preflight Covid tests for some countries
- PMI /: China’s factory activity gets back to growth, Caixin PMI shows
EA: HICP Scarcely Slows Pace in Feb-23
- Flash EA inflation only slowed by 15bp to 8.49% in Feb-23. That was 18bp above our forecast but 0.3pp above the consensus, breaking the downward surprise trend.
- Germany contributed the most upside to our view, but there was a broad skew higher in food prices, core goods, and headline rates outside the big-4 countries.
- Powerful base effects should still trigger a steep drop in March, but resilience in core and food price inflation reinforces our hawkish view of a stronger underlying trend.
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