In today’s briefing:
- Europe Flash Watch – The German 2025 bazooka!
- EUDR Is Delayed By One More Year Amid Retraction On Amendment
- Geopolitical Flash Update – Bye Bye Barnier
- Oil Prices Recover from Last Week’s Fall as Markets Bet on OPEC Postponing Output Hikes
- [ETP 2024/49] WTI Recovers on OPEC Extending Cuts; Henry Hub Drops on Volatile Weather Forecasts
- CX Daily: Chinese Chip Firms Play Down Impact of New U.S. Export Curbs
- Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 6 Nov 2024
Europe Flash Watch – The German 2025 bazooka!
- In Germany, “debt hawks” are slowly but surely waking up to the reality of their manufacturing industry being brought to its knees.
- In Angela Merkel’s recent book, she pleads for a softer stance on the debt brake, and the political landscape in Germany seems to be softening on the “Schwarze Null” in general, with also the Buba member Nagel now advocating for a softer stance.
- The future government would need a two-thirds majority in the Bundestag and Bundesrat to change the debt brake.
EUDR Is Delayed By One More Year Amid Retraction On Amendment
- European bodies agree to dump ‘no risk’ category of countries
- Dec 30 is deadline for endorsing delay by publishing in official journal
- ETRMA, GPSNR ask European Parliament to solve remaining issues
Geopolitical Flash Update – Bye Bye Barnier
- France sovereign debt reached a record €3.228 trillion, amounting to 112% of GDP in June, well above the 60% cap set by EU regulations.
- France growing debt have slowly been chipping away at investors’ confidence in French bonds.
- After Macron called a snap election in June resulting in a hung parliament, risk premiums on French 10-year bonds have shot up.
Oil Prices Recover from Last Week’s Fall as Markets Bet on OPEC Postponing Output Hikes
- OPEC+ will meet today (05/Dec), following a postponement from 01/Dec, to decide whether to delay planned output increases further.
- The postponement caused market jitters, with WTI and Brent futures falling 1.1% and 0.6%, respectively, on 29/Nov. The uncertainty eased as the delay was attributed to scheduling conflicts.
- For the week starting 02/Dec, WTI and Brent crude oil futures rebounded, rising 0.9% and 0.8%, respectively, driven by expectations of OPEC+ delaying planned output hikes due to price declines.
[ETP 2024/49] WTI Recovers on OPEC Extending Cuts; Henry Hub Drops on Volatile Weather Forecasts
- For the week ending 29/Nov, US crude inventories fell by 5.1m barrels, beating expectations of a 1.6m barrel decrease. However, gasoline and distillate stocks rose more than expected.
- US natural gas inventories fell by 30 Bcf for the week ending 29/Nov. Inventories are 7.8% above the 5-year seasonal average.
- UBS raised its 12-month price target on Chevron. Shell and Equinor plan to merge their UK offshore oil and gas assets to create a new company.
CX Daily: Chinese Chip Firms Play Down Impact of New U.S. Export Curbs
- Chips /: Chinese chip firms play down impact of new U.S. export curbs
- Batteries /In Depth: For Chinese battery-makers, Europe is losing its spark
- Stocks /:Rise in foreign investors’ holdings of Chinese stocks was likely modest, fragile, analysts say
Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 6 Nov 2024
- US Focus Shift: Trump’s reelection likely prioritizes domestic issues over international tensions, with potential prolonged high US interest rates impacting global economies.
- Asia’s Resilience: China stabilizes growth, India continues its upward cycle, and regional PMI figures reflect steady economic activity despite global uncertainties.
- Global Divide: Asia holds steady, while US manufacturing contracts and Europe faces deepening recession, highlighting stark contrasts in economic performance.
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