In today’s briefing:
- EUR-flation Watch: A major surprise is needed in February
EUR-flation Watch: A major surprise is needed in February
- The EUR HICP report for February needs to be very soft to tempt the ECB into spring action.
- The über-hawk of the committee Holzmann said the following on Bloomberg earlier:“But typically the Fed always in the last few years has always gone first by about half a year so I would assume, ceteris paribus, as things are, that we would also follow with delay,” which rhymes with market fears that the ECB, despite the outlook warranting a softer stance than the Fed, remains caught between a rock and a hard place when discussing the timing of the first cut.
- We see Euro area HICP coming in around 0.3% MoM and most importantly German HICP coming in around 0.43% MoM in our nowcasts, which is probably around 0.2%-points below early consensus.
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