Daily Brief Macro: EU: Defence Spending and more

• The EU is dealing with two crucial deadlines related to defence spending.
• The Commission is set to present its full loans-for-arms proposal to a divided European Council on 20 March.
• On 24 March, the ‘old’ Bundestag will step down, making it more difficult to ease Germany’s debt brake.

• The conversation focuses on the current state of the uranium market, with a emphasis on short interest and sentiment towards uranium stocks.
• Guy discusses the reasons behind the consensus short uranium position among hedge funds, and how it originated from thematic responses and shifts in the market.
• Despite the negative sentiment and high short interest, Guy remains optimistic about the potential for a sentiment shift in the uranium market.

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• Revised eurodollar forecast up to 116, more bearish on the dollar
• Erosion of US exceptionalism due to tariff policy blowback
• Introduction of new conceptual framework called the dollar tariff smile to understand FX reaction to tariffs

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• Stock market experienced a significant decline on Monday, prompting thoughts of hedging downside risk with options back in February.
• There are still strategies using options to manage risk and repair portfolios, as discussed in upcoming webinar.
• Variant Perception CEO Tian Yang discusses macro environment, impact of Trump’s policies, and the economy in interview with Macro Voices host Eric Townsend.

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•  Dumping of gloves from Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam into India alleged  
•  IRGMA petitions Indian Government for intervention to stop  
• DGTR recommends ADD on imports of titanium dioxide from China

• Overweight Malaysian equites but hedge against the US dollar. The bias is toward high tech, AI, industrials and consumer discretionary stocks.
• The Malaysian business cycle is set to strengthen. The profit cycle is stabilising. The investment upcycle is supported by rising FDI and infrastructure spending. 
• Expect the Johor-Singapore Special Economic Zone agreement will give fresh impetus by hastening economic integration and moving Malaysia up the value-added chain.

• Discussion about concerns regarding a U.S. recession or growth slowdown
• Analysis of historical mentions of recession in news media compared to current levels
• Evaluation of EM credit market sensitivity to recessionary risks and market moves so far

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• Public markets offer opportunities for long-term growth potential in renewable energy investments
• Infrastructure is essential for decarbonizing power generation and addressing global electricity demand
• Public markets provide liquidity, diversification, income, and potentially better valuations for investing in infrastructure compared to private markets

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• A deal on the German fiscal package has been reached and is expected to be voted through in Parliament next week, leading to higher defense spending and revised growth forecast expectations.
• The massive sell-off in bund yields following the announcement can be attributed to higher ECB policy rate expectations, increased defense spending across the region, and term premium pricing.
• The revision of ECB terminal rate expectations and steepening of the money market forwards have put upward pressure on German yields, but the term premium may gradually fade, leading to a lower yield target of around 240-250 basis points by mid to late this year.

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• Expectations for on-hold decision at upcoming FOMC meeting, with continued emphasis on patience from the Fed
• BoE likely to pause cutting cycle with similar forward guidance, while Bank of Japan expected to skip hiking cycle
• Fed focused on potential inflationary impact of tariffs, balancing risks of growth and price increases in uncertain environment.

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