In today’s briefing:
- End of Mandatory Lock-Up Periods for 53 Companies in Korea in December 2023
- Charting Beyond the Equity Market Headlines
- EA: Inflation Slumps Into Trough
- OPEC, EIA and Nat Gas Watch: A Lukewarm but Bullish Supply Cut
- Philippines Economics: Marcos’ Investment Drive Starting to Show Results
- Bond Investors Are Overdoing It!
- CX Daily: Five Things to Know About Huawei’s New Smart Car Venture
End of Mandatory Lock-Up Periods for 53 Companies in Korea in December 2023
- We discuss the end of the mandatory lock-up periods for 53 stocks in Korea in December 2023, among which 6 are in KOSPI and 47 are in KOSDAQ.
- These 53 stocks on average could be subject to further selling pressures in December and could underperform relative to the market.
- Among these 53 stocks, top five market cap stocks include Doosan Robotics, Studio Dragon, Asicland, Manyo Factory, and Curocell.
Charting Beyond the Equity Market Headlines
- One common measure of global equity market valuation has hovered consistently below the US ratio over the last decade or so
- Two different measures of valuation suggest that the US equity market appears to be fairly stretched
- Over the next decade, the real return on US equities is likely to be lower than the last 10 years, perhaps with some risk of it being subzero on average
EA: Inflation Slumps Into Trough
- EA inflation undershot expectations for the third consecutive month by falling by 49bps to 2.41% in Nov-23. That is 0.3pp under the consensus and 16bps less than we expected.
- The downward bias in outcomes since the Oct-22 peak is substantial, even if half of that merely invalidates consistently exaggerated expectations for positive payback.
- Base effects from German energy utility support are set to break the downtrend in Dec-23. Underlying inflation isn’t below the target, so ECB cuts should wait until 3Q24.
OPEC, EIA and Nat Gas Watch: A Lukewarm but Bullish Supply Cut
- After a load of speculations and postponements, the OPEC group finally delivered a press release, but there are still many uncertainties around the actual outcome of the meeting.
- On the surface, the supply cut deal is intensive, but given early hints of non-compliance from a couple of the African members, the market is not overly convinced.
- We disagree with the market take-away and see this as a strong supply message, but admittedly have to monitor the compliance on an ongoing basis in coming months.
Philippines Economics: Marcos’ Investment Drive Starting to Show Results
- The administration’s ramp-up in investment spending, notably in transport and infrastructure, is supporting the short-run outlook and longer-run growth prospects.
- Investment-Related metrics are on the up, including a notable rise in foreign investment approvals directed towards renewable energy. Regulatory reform is providing a boost.
- Managing Manila-Beijing ties will continue to pose a tricky balancing act for Marcos.
Bond Investors Are Overdoing It!
- Our estimate of the fair value 10-year US Treasury yield currently stands at 4.63%.
- With a difference of 38 basis points, the gap between the fair value estimate and the actual yield is historically large.
- Hence, we adjust our portfolio and remove the overweight in Treasuries.
CX Daily: Five Things to Know About Huawei’s New Smart Car Venture
- Huawei /: Five things to know about Huawei’s new smart car venture
- Banking /: China’s Bank of Communications added to global too-big-to-fail banks list
- Corruption /: Former Guangdong prison chief expelled from Party for graft
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