Daily Brief Macro: End of Mandatory Lock-Up Periods for 52 Companies in Korea in February 2023 and more

• We discuss end of the mandatory lock-up periods for 52 stocks in Korea in February 2023, among which 3 are in KOSPI and 49 are in KOSDAQ.
• These 52 stocks on average could be subject to further selling pressures in Febraury and could underperform relative to the market. 
• Among these 52 stocks, the top 5 market cap stocks include Rainbow Robotics, SillaJen, SOCAR, Sebitchem, and Yunsung F&C.

• We identify stocks in the EMEA region that are filling the void created by Russia’s removal from financial markets in 2022.
• MENA stocks have benefitted from rotation, led by Saudi Aramco,  Emaar Properties and Saudi Basic Industries
• Outside of MENA, South Africa remains an important destination, whilst Dino Polska SA (DNP PW) and MOL are favoured in Eastern Europe

• Cover Story: The vision of Singapore’s next prime minister.

• Missing for 100 days, teenager found dead behind school.

• China’s provinces target household spending in plans for post-‘zero Covid’ recovery.

• The Marcos administration has emphasized its focus on growth, backing it up by pursuing measures such as ratifying RCEP, infrastructure spending, and liberalizing reforms. 
• However, we caution readers against premature optimism; structural weaknesses such as crony capitalism, debt concerns, and poor public investment management persist.
• Compounding the long-term shortcomings are near-term macroeconomic challenges in tackling stubbornly-high inflation. Monetary tightening may also induce financial risks.

• The global economy is slowing: our lead indicator predicts a further downturn in Asian exports. However, the global outlook may turn out better than expected for Asia.
• While one can be sceptical of Chinese data reporting low infections and deaths, consumer sentiment has rebounded.  Beijing is also pursuing growth with zealous fervour.
• Slower global inflation has helped ease fears of excessive monetary tightening. Business optimism is also making a slow but steady recovery.

• We take you through all of our leading indicators on growth, inflation and liquidity ahead of the Fed meeting
• Inflation and growth is coming down, while liquidity is currently improving 
• Bottom-Line: The Fed is close to pausing but QT will remain in place until the early Autumn at least

• EA GDP growth defied expectations by growing again in Q4, albeit by only 0.1% q-o-q and reliant on Ireland’s ongoing boom. Its performance still sits between the UK and US.
• Resilient activity remains both a matter of output and employment. The ECB still needs labour market slackening for underlying inflation to become consistent with the target.
• Spain’s stronger core inflation provided a timely reminder of the hawkish pressure, even if weighting and methodological changes compounded the effect.

Malaysia’s once-dominant party has sacked popular former health minister Khairy Jamaluddin, depriving itself of one of its proponents for rejuvenation and reform. Khairy is now left pondering the next steps for his political career, but there are no straightforward options. 

• Analyst sentiment was flat to down slightly.  A net 27% of companies are seeing raised estimates.  The average estimate revision is a raise of +0.7%.
• Analyst sentiment is crowded and bullish for Precious Metals, Restaurants, Internet Retail, Computer Processing Hardware, IT Services, Packaged Software, Advertising & Marketing Services and Specialty Telecom.
• Notable reversals in estimates occurred in Distribution Services, Broadcasting and Investment Banks (from cuts to new raises) and in Utilities and Engineering & Construction (new cuts).