In today’s briefing:
- EM by EM #39: All Roads Out of China Lead to Goods Disinflation
- Mint Macro Roundup: Deflation, Anaemic GDP Growth & Falling Exports Amplifies China Headwinds
- US Interest Rates and the Dollar and Impact on Markets
- CX Daily: China’s 2023 GDP Growth Recovers to 5.2%, Beating Target
- Suez and EIA Watch – Demand / Supply Getting Out of Balance?
EM by EM #39: All Roads Out of China Lead to Goods Disinflation
- Takeaway:China serves as the primary deflationary force in the global macroeconomic landscape.
- Despite China’s slowing growth, potential policy responses might paradoxically exacerbate deflationary pressures.
- We anticipate rising inflation risks linked to potential supply shocks resulting from geopolitical developments.
Mint Macro Roundup: Deflation, Anaemic GDP Growth & Falling Exports Amplifies China Headwinds
- China’s GDP growth continues to be driven by government spending while domestic demand and consumer confidence remains weak.
- Exports fall in 2023, the first time since 2016 despite industrial production and utilisation rising.
- China’s CPI inflation in December comes in at -0.3 % YoY, falls for three consecutive months.
US Interest Rates and the Dollar and Impact on Markets
- Recent US economic data has been mixed on the inflation/growth front.
- Fed dot plot and messaging at odds with market expectations.
- The extent of rate cuts is correct, but timing is likely not.
CX Daily: China’s 2023 GDP Growth Recovers to 5.2%, Beating Target
- GDP / China’s 2023 GDP growth recovers to 5.2%, beating target
Davos /: China Premier says humans must control machines in AI development
Population /: China’s population shrinks for second year with record low birthrate
Suez and EIA Watch – Demand / Supply Getting Out of Balance?
- Takeaways: Energy freight rates still not reacting to troubles in the Red Sea
- This week saw another increase in container freight rate.
- Seasonality working against higher freight rates. That changes by April.
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