In today’s briefing:
- EM by EM #24 Tightening the noose on EM
- Oil Watch: The EIA plot thickens
- Steno Signals #68: There is NOT enough buyers for bonds amidst all this
- Macro Nugget: How do markets react to turmoil in Gaza/Israel?
- The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Filters, Barito Renewables, and Vertex Technology SPAC.
- Portfolio Watch: No Quarter and No Surrender
- Positioning Watch: Who is caught in the Crossfire?
- German Labor Nugget: Will the Ukrainians play a role in German wage development?
- Great Game – What comes next for Hamas and Israel?
- China Property: Golden Week – Early Data Suggests Weaker New Home Sales
EM by EM #24 Tightening the noose on EM
- This week’s standout story has undeniably been the startling EIA report from the US.
- Unless we receive a substantial revision or information that undermines the bleak picture -the unfortunate reality is probably that US consumers are, regrettably, capitulating.
- If this proves to be true, it aligns with the somewhat disheartening credit card spending data from BofA, as well as the diminishing excess savings and eroding real disposable incomes
Oil Watch: The EIA plot thickens
- The EIA report moved oil markets markedly yesterday and the sell-off has continued today.
- If the EIA report is indeed a true reflection of the slide in the retail gasoline demand, it may shave off >1mn barrels a day in global demand for oil.
- The BIG issue for the EIA report is that it is 100% out of sync with high frequent transportation data, so what do we make of it here?
Steno Signals #68: There is NOT enough buyers for bonds amidst all this
- A deal between the US/Israel and Saudi Arabia seems off the table after this weekend
- Oil markets are physically tight still, but there are some signs of cracks in demand
- Nat gas markets have started to rally, which is another issue for EUR, GBP and JPY markets
Macro Nugget: How do markets react to turmoil in Gaza/Israel?
- We have taken a look at the data over the course of the last five stand-offs between Israel and Hamas/Palestine on the back of the atrocious scenes unfolding in the region over the course of the weekend.
- We hope and pray for a peaceful outcome and send our thoughts and prayers to hostages and impacted civilians.
- We consider an escalation involving Iran to be the biggest market risk right now and will release our geopolitical analysis shortly.
The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Filters, Barito Renewables, and Vertex Technology SPAC.
- The past week saw insights published onn Selamat Sempurna (SMSM IJ), Barito Renewables, Boustead Plantations (BPLANT MK), and Vertex Technology Acquisition Corporation (VTAC SP). and UOB (UOB SP).
- There were also insights in the 3Q2023 performance in Singapore, as well as a look at Singapore’s monthly balance sheet, and a credit insight looking at Medco Energi (MEDC IJ).
- The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across Southeast Asia.
Portfolio Watch: No Quarter and No Surrender
- We’re here again for our weekly Portfolio Watch, and I must admit, it’s been a rather challenging week.
- We found ourselves on the wrong side of the equity spread between CRAK and IYT. It’s ironic, really, as we initially thought the main risk was being fashionably late to the party.
- Alas, it was the crack spreads that unexpectedly threw us off balance.
Positioning Watch: Who is caught in the Crossfire?
- Welcome back to our weekly positioning watch, where we run through interest positioning insights/data collected throughout the week.
- As we put pen to paper, history is unfolding in Israel, with plenty of shocking footage circulating online.
- With Netanyahu declaring war and a growing mobilization, it appears that the worst of the bloodshed may be yet to come.
German Labor Nugget: Will the Ukrainians play a role in German wage development?
- With the Alternative Für Deutschland (AfD) on the rise in regional elections in Bayern (Bavaria) and Hesse, we have decided to look at the economic ramifications of a continued large influx of migrants in Germany.
- What are the lessons learned from 2015 and will migration again impact German wages?
- Take aways: Germany taking more Ukrainian immigrants than its peers.
Great Game – What comes next for Hamas and Israel?
- Welcome to a quick rundown of what’s what in the Hamas-Israel war that we’re all watching these days.
- We will be releasing a bunch of macro analyses on both commodities and other areas, so in this space we’ll stick with the geopolitical analysis.
- Here’s my main takeaways:1973 all over again?
China Property: Golden Week – Early Data Suggests Weaker New Home Sales
- Early indications for the Golden Week suggest new home sales in the 18 major cities (with consistent data we track) deteriorated further on multiple metrics
- There might be some data distortions due to delays in reporting over the holiday
- For the full picture, we would wait another 1-2 weeks and look at the Golden Week and 1-2 weeks surrounding it
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