In today’s briefing:
- EM by EM #2 – Don’t Fight the Xi
- Money Watch: Your Favorite Liquidity Proxy Is About to Become Drier than a Martini
- PW Advisory Friday Musings: Crunch Time
- UK: Sales Soaked in Mar-23
EM by EM #2 – Don’t Fight the Xi
- Chinese consumers are back with a vengeance after COVID. Pend-up savings and real incomes fuel the boom
- CCP successfully managed to avoid an overall systemic meltdown with the Evergrande/Real Estate complex crisis in the fall of 2021
- Should the global credit market once again take the Chinese real estate complex as a hostage, the CCP has plenty of macro-room to respond
Money Watch: Your Favorite Liquidity Proxy Is About to Become Drier than a Martini
- Small banks with a small comeback against large banks on the back of liquidity ease
- Your favorite liquidity proxy (Fed BS – TGA – RRP) is looking shaky heading into H2
- GS teaming up with Apple to strengthen income on consumer platform
PW Advisory Friday Musings: Crunch Time
- College hoops just ended (March Madness now extends into April) & now its playoff time for both the NHL and NBA – there is not much better than playoff hockey – go Bs!
- Playoffs = crunch time when reps are made and victors crowned.
- But crunch time extends beyond just sports to other facets of life as well – being under the gun at work, up to your eyeballs with the kids and yes in the markets too.
UK: Sales Soaked in Mar-23
- UK retail retreated from its highs in Mar-23 as the most unseasonably persistent March rain since 1914 soaked sales. Warmth spared sales from a total washout.
- This decline returns values to their upward trend while volumes are at their six-month average, consistent with our view that the volume trend has flatlined.
- Second-Round effects support short-term activity and asset prices, including housing, where a crash looks to have been avoided. We still don’t expect substantial falls.
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