In today’s briefing:
- DOGE Didn’t Dent Resilience
- The Art of the Trade War: U.S. PANICS AND RETREATS!
- The Drill: Watch oil as OPEC is imploding..
- China: Tariff Walls to Exacerbate Capital Flight, Deflation, Over-Capacity Challenges
- CX Daily: Luxury Brands Cut Price of Exclusivity as Chinese Spending Drops
- Potential Change in Dividend Income Taxes in Korea – Will the Lawmakers Finally Make the Change?
- [ETP 2025/17] WTI Tumbles Amid U.S. Trade Policy Uncertainty, Henry Hub Continues to Slide
- Antofagasta (ANTO LN) And First Quantum Minerals (FM CN) Q1 Updates
DOGE Didn’t Dent Resilience
- President Trump is restructuring the US state through tariff funding and efficiency savings. The former dominates focus, but we also see no evidence of problematic cuts.
- Jobless claims are low and stable, including among federal workers and in states with the highest federal workforce shares. Government job openings haven’t even fallen.
- DOGE cuts are often multi-year and in grants to others. It may have helped the deficit, and the efficiency is fundamentally desirable. Concerns about it still seem overblown.
The Art of the Trade War: U.S. PANICS AND RETREATS!
- The US has begun to retreat from the trade war it began this year. Trump and Bessent have both softened their statements toward China and indicated a lowering of tariffs.
- Container ship bookings dropped off a cliff after Trump’s Liberation Day tariff announcement.
- Trade negotiations are expected to take months or years, and will not change the bear market in the USD, equities, and treasuries as foreigners pull money from US asset markets.
The Drill: Watch oil as OPEC is imploding..
- The everlasting circus of US politics continues, and at this point, it almost seems like Bessent has effectively taken over the presidency—at least when it comes to pushing through the most critical U-turns in Trump’s policy decisions.
- When we loop back over the major U-turns of the past couple of months, the most influential reversals all appear to have been driven by Bessent (and, to an extent, Lutnick)
- What exactly is going on inside the Trump camp? It’s painfully obvious that they are not aligned on the public message, and to add fuel to the fire, Trump is now back attacking Zelensky once again.
China: Tariff Walls to Exacerbate Capital Flight, Deflation, Over-Capacity Challenges
- TSF increased by a record RMB15.18trn (US$2.09trn) in Q12025, enabling industrial growth of 6.5%YoY, FAI growth of 4.2%YoY, retail sales growth of 4.6%YoY and real GDP growth of 5.4%YoY.
- Slumping imports and 7.5%YoY growth in exports in Q1/2025 took the 12m-rolling trade surplus to US$1.08trn in Mar’25, but FX reserves declined slightly YoY, suggesting persistence of colossal capital flight.
- Producer prices have deflated for 5 of the past 10 years, including all 30 latest months (-2.5%YoY Mar’25). Tariff barriers will prevent exporting overcapacity, thereby exacerbating deflation, hastening financial crises.
CX Daily: Luxury Brands Cut Price of Exclusivity as Chinese Spending Drops
- Luxury /: Luxury brands cut price of exclusivity as Chinese spending drops
- Trade /: Xi’s Southeast Asia tour underscores regional trade ties
- Tariffs /Interview: China’s vast market can be key to trade negotiations
Potential Change in Dividend Income Taxes in Korea – Will the Lawmakers Finally Make the Change?
- There is an important potential change in dividend income taxes that may finally be passed into law in Korea.
- The Democratic Party of Korea (led by Democratic Party lawmaker Lee So-Young) is pushing legislation to separate the taxation of dividends from comprehensive income for publicly listed companies.
- Among the top 100 companies in KOSPI (by market cap), there are 21 companies with more than 35% estimated dividend payout in 2025, including SK Telecom, POSCO Holdings, and KT&G.
[ETP 2025/17] WTI Tumbles Amid U.S. Trade Policy Uncertainty, Henry Hub Continues to Slide
- For the week ending 18/Apr, U.S. crude inventories rose by 0.2m barrels (vs. expectations of a 0.7m barrel fall). Gasoline and distillate stockpiles fell more than expected.
- Henry Hub is headed for a fourth straight weekly decline. U.S. natural gas inventories rose by 88 Bcf, exceeding analyst expectations of a 69 Bcf build.
- Analysts cut price targets for Exxon, Chevron, Occidental, and Halliburton. Activist investor Elliott raised its stake in BP to just over 5% via derivative contracts.
Antofagasta (ANTO LN) And First Quantum Minerals (FM CN) Q1 Updates
- First Quantum Minerals (FM CN) reported their Q1 results, and Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN) reported their first quarter updates.
- Due to the base effect, Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN) first-quarter production numbers looked strong, with copper/gold production coming in at 20%/29% YoY.
- First Quantum Minerals (FM CN) production was down by 2% YoY, but was expected as the company has lower production from the Sentinel mine.
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