In today’s briefing:
- De-Coupling or Detente? the Future of Us-Chinese Trade in the Balance
- UK: Output Partially Resumes in Jan-23
- Money Watch: Have People Forgotten that Everything Is About Money? Also the Svb Case..
- CX Daily: Uncertainty Undermines Prospects of China’s Homegrown Covid Antivirals
- TPW Advisory Friday Musings: Like A Hurricane
De-Coupling or Detente? the Future of Us-Chinese Trade in the Balance
- For years, the US have struggled to find their footing vis-a-vis the new Chinese threat.
- We have seen countless attempts at “strategic pivots” and contructive meetings, but it’s no wonder if the Chinese are left with a feeling of confusion.
- What do the US actually want? What will be the next steps in Bidens “de-coupling” from China?
UK: Output Partially Resumes in Jan-23
- UK GDP started 2023 with a slightly fuller rebound, continuing the skew towards upside surprises. Resilience was broad across services sectors.
- Strikes at schools failed to knock activity as much as those in other sectors or even prevent a rebound from the sickness-depressed attendance in December.
- The Q1 decline now looks likely to be only marginal, although we continue to expect a recession this year as excessive inflation and demand eventually get squeezed out.
Money Watch: Have People Forgotten that Everything Is About Money? Also the Svb Case..
- Money growth is slowing right about everywhere including in Japan after extreme increases during the early stages of the pandemic
- With the recent U-turn in money growth, this means: Everything DOWN, until lower rates saves us again
- We take a look at assets and CPI in the 70s and compare it to today’s data to determine what might happen in the macro landscape next
CX Daily: Uncertainty Undermines Prospects of China’s Homegrown Covid Antivirals
Uncertainty undermines prospects of China’s homegrown Covid antivirals
China vows to get tough on online crimes behind cyberbullying
Officials face steep pay cuts under China’s financial regulatory overhaul
TPW Advisory Friday Musings: Like A Hurricane
- Just when one was getting sick & tired of the never ending inflation saga along comes something straight out of the blue – like a hurricane to paraphrase Neil Young & Crazy Horse.
- In this case it’s the crypto collapse with a sting in its tail which took down Silvergate Capital Corp & Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) in a matter of days, upending even the top tier jobs #.
- Neil & the band came up with that tune back in 1977 (personal confession – Live Rust is one of my go tos for gym workouts) and today one can read about how SVB parallels not quite the 1970s but the S&L crisis of the early 80s.
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