Daily Brief Macro: CX Daily: Why Some Kids in China Can’t Play During Recess and more

Schools /In Depth: Why some kids in China can’t play during recess

Yuan /: Argentina taps China currency swap line to help repay IMF loan

PMI /: China’s services sector maintains recovery, Caixin PMI shows

• Unlike many suggest, the downgrade of the US credit rating by Fitch, resulting in the US losing its Triple-A status, will have significant impact on markets.
• The disappointing ISM Manufacturing Index comes with massive downside for Equities in all regions.
• While the Big Tech earnings dream get to live another day, the risks of a further and more significant slowdown in company earnings remain abundant.

• We view AI’s emergence coupled with the acceleration of EV adoption as suggesting two firsts – the first competition of the Tri Polar World (TPW) and the first competition of the AI age.
• Both suggest those regions able to integrate semi and EV supply chains at speed will be the winners.
• All three TPW poles (Europe, Asia & the Americas) are highly motivated to compete, arguably there is no future without success and so we foresee a public – private investment period akin to the post WW 2 rebuild of Europe & Asia but focused on Climate & AI – a perspective which underpins our positive LT global growth outlook. See Chart 20.