In today’s briefing:
- CX Daily: China’s Sports Corruption Dragnet Casts Pall Ahead of Paris Olympics
- Momentum Trading Opportunities In Agricultural Commodities
- Energy Cable: Short shipping companies?
- Australia RBA Cash Rate Target 4.35% (consensus 4.35%) in Jun-24
- EA Inflation Stays Soft Despite Rise
- Great Game – Why Tesla is winning the EU-China trade war
CX Daily: China’s Sports Corruption Dragnet Casts Pall Ahead of Paris Olympics
- Corruption / Cover Story: China’s sports corruption dragnet casts pall ahead of Paris Olympics
- Euro Cup / Chinese brands intend to triumph at Euro Cup 2024
- Cyberbully / China rolls out new rules for online sites to curb cyberbullying
Momentum Trading Opportunities In Agricultural Commodities
- Corn futures show high potential for momentum trading, peaking in early-year gains and declining from June, matching seasonal harvest patterns in major producers like China and Brazil.
- Over the past five years, momentum trading in soybean futures outperformed other crops with average annual returns of USD 13,600, though 2024 saw significant losses reflecting its counter cyclical performance.
- Bearish outlook for corn in 2024 due to increased global production outlook from key regions, bearish shifts by asset managers, and USDA forecasts predicting lower season-average prices.
Energy Cable: Short shipping companies?
- Hello from a sunny Copenhagen where the Euro 24 fever is upon us all.
- This week we’ll do a chart heavy analysis on shipping and nat gas.
- We were stopped out of our long position in shipping in February due to false reports on a deal with the Houthis that sent the market tanking.
Australia RBA Cash Rate Target 4.35% (consensus 4.35%) in Jun-24
- The RBA held the cash rate at 4.35%, reflecting a cautious approach in response to persistent inflation and excess demand pressures, aligning with the economic consensus.
- Domestic consumption trends, labour market conditions, and global economic uncertainties will influence future policy decisions, focusing on achieving the 2-3% inflation target by the second half of 2025.
- The RBA emphasizes data-driven decision-making and remains vigilant to upside inflation risks, maintaining flexibility in its policy stance to ensure inflation returns to target sustainably.
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EA Inflation Stays Soft Despite Rise
- Final EA HICP inflation at 2.57% in May confirmed the surprisingly strong flash, with services inflation another 5bps above an already resurgent pace at 4.13%.
- Underlying inflationary pressures converged across countries at a slightly below-target monthly impulse. Fundamental support from wages should prevent an undershoot.
- The consensus increased over the past month, but the gap to our forecast typically remains 0.1pp or less. ECB cuts can continue if its peers follow its dovish path soon.
Great Game – Why Tesla is winning the EU-China trade war
- Welcome to this weeks Great Game, in which we will cover 3 major stories right now – European EV tariffs, the upcoming election in France and the turmoil in Brazil.
- EU Tariffs on Chinese Electric Vehicles Situation: The European Commission is expected to disclose this week the tariffs it plans to impose on Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) due to what it says are excessive subsidies.
- This move follows Washington’s recent decision to quadruple duties for Chinese EVs to 100%, although Brussels is expected to set significantly lower tariffs.
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