In today’s briefing:
- CX Daily: China Battles Surge in Respiratory Infections Among Children
- Portfolio Watch: The last dance?
- EM by EM #30: It’s Time for Milei to Grapple with the Real World
- The Weekly Market Monitor – VIX Hits Multi-Year Low, Investors Can’t See Any Risks!
CX Daily: China Battles Surge in Respiratory Infections Among Children
- Infections / China battles surge in respiratory infections among children
Corruption /Exclusive: Chairman of China Cosco’s leasing unit under probe
Proposal /: Financial sector has potential to better serve China’s real economy, lawmakers say
Portfolio Watch: The last dance?
- Conclusions up front:1) A long USD bet is a good way to express 1) strong US data seasonality compared to peers until year-end and a bet on extreme help from spreadsheets / seasonal adjustments in the ISMs, 2) The oil market is the only cyclical market not responding to the current positivity.
- Will we see a ketchup effect should OPEC+ deliver next week?
- 3) EUR-duration continues to look attractive ahead of a likely soft CPI print next week.
EM by EM #30: It’s Time for Milei to Grapple with the Real World
- Summary of our view: Argentine equities are disconnected from underlying risks; ARS remains a depreciated currency with mounting pressure due to the current balance sheet composition.
- Milei may possess economic knowledge, but he must transform into a skilled politician to navigate between domestic politicians and foreign powers.
- If Biden/Blinken are prudent, they should seize the opportunity to strengthen ties with Argentina by offering financial assistance to facilitate a transition toward economic sustainability.
The Weekly Market Monitor – VIX Hits Multi-Year Low, Investors Can’t See Any Risks!
- Volatility Has dropped off a cliff, signaling that investors are unable to see any risk currently. That feels at least a bit complacent.
- We take a deep dive to determine which asset class will likely benefit most from the first Fed rate cut and the start of the easing cycle. Spoiler alert! It’s not Equities.
- OPEC’s resilience to continue production cuts is being tested. At the same time, our Fear & Frenzy Sentiment Index has moved even further into FRENZY territory.
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