In today’s briefing:
- China’s Stimulus Rollout Shows Signs of Gaining Steam
- Expect the ISM Manufacturing to Rise to 48, Signaling 14% Downside for Equities
- CX Daily: China’s Property Crisis Contagion Spreads to State-Backed Developers
- Growth in East Asia Holds Up and a Path to Recovery Is Open
- Great Game: Book burnings and Ukrainian peace talks
- The Energy Cable #31 – Crack Spreads and Positioning Support the Bull-Case!
- CX Daily: Race Is On to Become China’s SpaceX
China’s Stimulus Rollout Shows Signs of Gaining Steam
- Worried by a worsening economy, Beijing is expanding stimulus measures with incentives to consumers to buy big-ticket items and assuaging private entrepreneurs’ fears of policy biases against them.
- Tentative moves to loosen hukou restrictions in Zhejiang suggest a newfound willingness to tackle politically-sensitive reforms to bolster long-run growth.
- Policymakers’ hopes seem to be for a better-managed but slower pace of growth that is in line with China’s demographic and other fundamentals.
Expect the ISM Manufacturing to Rise to 48, Signaling 14% Downside for Equities
- Based on the six regional Manufacturing PMIs published for the ISM Manufacturing Index, the ISM should come in at 48.1 for July.
- Based on several leading macro indicators, including the latest Fed Lending Survey and Money Supply Growth, the scope for an increase in the ISM Manufacturing Index is limited.
- An ISM Manufacturing Index points to 14% downside for the S&P 500 Index and significantly lower bond yields.
CX Daily: China’s Property Crisis Contagion Spreads to State-Backed Developers
- Property /Cover Story: China’s property crisis contagion spreads to state-backed developers
- Mortgages /: Chart of the Day: China’s personal mortgages post first decline in a decade
- Private /: China seeks feedback from private sector on what it can do better
Growth in East Asia Holds Up and a Path to Recovery Is Open
- Growth in South Korea and Taiwan has held up better than expected thanks to resilient domestic demand.
- While headline indicators suggest continued difficulties ahead, developments in major markets such as the US and China may provide upside surprises for the world economy.
- Resilient labour markets and slack in the tourism industry allow Asian economies to take advantage of any global upswing. The path towards recovery has widened.
Great Game: Book burnings and Ukrainian peace talks
- We begin close to our home in Denmark, where the phenomenon of Quran burnings is once again the topic of the hour.
- The right wing provocateur and nutjob Rasmus Paludan started the trend before he stood for the Danish Election in 2019 and since took his activites across the Sound to Sweden.
- The burning of the Quran is obviously a huge affront to the global muslim population and was a major roadblock for Sweden’s entry into NATO.
The Energy Cable #31 – Crack Spreads and Positioning Support the Bull-Case!
- Welcome to your weekly maverick energy newsletter with views from both sides of the pond! Steno Research and 3Fourteen models align – see how we view the risk/reward in various proxy trades below!
- Apparently with the spikes in volatility over the last couple of weeks we need to talk about natural gas in Europe again.
- Various people have been harping about the Natural Gas markets in Europe, so let’s once and for all lay it out. Nooo, we are not going to run out of gas this winter.
CX Daily: Race Is On to Become China’s SpaceX
- Space /In Depth: Race is on to become China’s SpaceX
- Torrential rains /: Floods in North China claim 20 lives as torrential rain cuts power, communications
- China-France /: China and France make progress on financial cooperation
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