In today’s briefing:
- CHINA: When Will Stocks Catch Up With Surging Debt Markets?
- Great Game – Israel and Hezbollah headed for war?
- Navigating Copper’s Contradictions: Short-Term Demand Woes Versus Long-Term Supply Gaps
- Actinver – Macro Daily: Inflation 1h-Jun
- CrossASEAN Ground Zero – Shopee’s Live Streaming Push, GoTo’s Multi-Pronged Initiatives, and BliBli
- CX Daily: China Mulls Tax System Overhaul to Ease Record Local Government Debt
- Inflation Watch: What if the Cyclical Prices Are Not Truly Tamed? Lessons from Canada and Sweden
- Canada CPI Inflation 2.87% y-o-y (consensus 2.6%) in May-24
- UK: The Fiscal Steer for Keir
- How To Lose Money Smelting Copper
CHINA: When Will Stocks Catch Up With Surging Debt Markets?
- China’s debt markets are experiencing an historic bull cycle as government and companies take advantage by ramping up issuances this year.
- Beijing will use its healthy balance sheet and continued debt issuance to clean up local government debt and simultaneously address the property sector problems.
- China’s healthy external position will provide continued support for its currency and debt markets with equity markets to follow in the coming months.
Great Game – Israel and Hezbollah headed for war?
Clashes between Israeli forces and Hezbollah militants intensified along the Israel-Lebanon border.
The conflict escalated after a Hezbollah rocket attack on an Israeli border town killed four civilians.
In response, Israel launched airstrikes targeting Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon, resulting in significant casualties and infrastructure damage.
Navigating Copper’s Contradictions: Short-Term Demand Woes Versus Long-Term Supply Gaps
- A slowdown in China’s property and manufacturing sectors along with high refining ouput has led to a significant increase in copper inventories, contributing to short-term demand concerns.
- Major copper miners face production challenges, risking future supply deficits amid growing demand from the photovoltaic and EV industries.
- Asset managers have reduced their long positions in copper due to near-term market conditions, reflecting a cautious outlook on immediate price movements.
Actinver – Macro Daily: Inflation 1h-Jun
- Headline inflation increased by 0.21% bw, pressured by agricultural prices, returning to an annual rate of 4.78%.
- Core inflation rose by 0.17% bw, returning to an annual rate of 4.17%.
- Headline inflation was slightly above our estimate (0.21% vs. 0.19%), because some agricultural products registered higher price increases than estimated.
CrossASEAN Ground Zero – Shopee’s Live Streaming Push, GoTo’s Multi-Pronged Initiatives, and BliBli
- This week we look at Shopee’s ongoing efforts to turn up the dial on live streaming as TikTok restructures Tokopedia and we look at the product-lead initiatives driving GoTo’s growth.
- We also comment on the latest acquisition by Global Digital Niaga Tbk PT (BELI IJ) in the home improvement space as it seeks to increase its omnichannel exposure.
- CrossASEAN Ground Zero is a thematic weekly product that focuses on key Southeast Asian themes and technology trends with a core focus on Indonesia.
CX Daily: China Mulls Tax System Overhaul to Ease Record Local Government Debt
- China’s Central Economic Work Conference in December proposed the first reforms to the country’s 30-year-old fiscal and taxation system, sparking widespread debate among academics and tax experts.
Tariffs /: ‘Doors are open for discussions’ on EU’s China EV tariffs, German minister says
Landslide /: Landslide in remote part of Central China leaves eight dead
Inflation Watch: What if the Cyclical Prices Are Not Truly Tamed? Lessons from Canada and Sweden
- If you know me, you know I have a thing for charts, especially those showing momentum in the macro cycle.
- Forget nominal levels; it’s the rate of change that really drives asset markets.
- This analysis is chock-full of rate of change charts, just to remind you that we’ve only managed to nudge inflation back to just above target levels—right as the cycle’s rate of change is shifting towards re-acceleration in many places.
Canada CPI Inflation 2.87% y-o-y (consensus 2.6%) in May-24
- Canada’s CPI inflation rate in May 2024 was 2.87% year-on-year, exceeding expectations by 0.3 percentage points and reversing most of the slowdown from April 2024.
- The Core CPI for the same period was 1.8% year-on-year, surpassing expectations.
- The PPI inflation rate was 1.63% year-on-year, indicating contained cost pressures at the production stage.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.
UK: The Fiscal Steer for Keir
- Labour still seems set to win the UK’s 4 July general election with a manifesto that avoids its likely response to the fiscal pressures it inherits.
- Duty increases will probably start occurring, rather than rolling cancellations, while tax thresholds stay frozen and capital gains are taxed more despite increasing distortions.
- The tax burden will continue trending higher, with only slight uncertainty in the extent. This stability may keep encouraging companies and high earners to leave the UK.
How To Lose Money Smelting Copper
- Investing in copper and copper miners represents a significant opportunity for investors over the next ten to fifteen years.
- But the market is more complicated than most believe, and success will require not only an understanding of the entire supply chain but also a willingness to be active.
- In this post, we look at the role smelters play in the copper value chain.
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