In today’s briefing:
- China Two Sessions Output Gives Cause for Confidence
- Commodity & Shipping Watch: Time to get back into the shipping bets?
- ECB Calmly Awaits News
- Malaysia Policy Rate 3.0% (consensus 3.0%) in Mar-24
- Mexico CPI Inflation 4.4% y-o-y (consensus 4.4%) in Feb-24
China Two Sessions Output Gives Cause for Confidence
- Headline numbers disappoint investors hoping for a massive stimulus plan
- “Around” 5 percent GDP growth should not be considered weak
- Messages from the Two Sessions supports a positive outlook on China equity markets
Commodity & Shipping Watch: Time to get back into the shipping bets?
- Negative roll yield killing BCOM returns, even as spot has performed OK
- We need to see some serious stimulus out of China for broad commodities to rally
- Macro data turning bullish in shipping and the Container output from Shanghai is showing signs of a STRONG rebound
ECB Calmly Awaits News
- The ECB unanimously maintained its policy rates and did not even discuss cuts despite this meeting being dovishly priced as starting a cutting cycle until recently.
- April is effectively ruled out, barring a crisis, with weakening wages needed to justify a June start. Resilient services inflation may mean wage costs are not benign enough.
- Although we believe the ECB expects to cut in June, we still expect resilience to delay that first move to September. A high neutral rate would also limit and slow cuts.
Malaysia Policy Rate 3.0% (consensus 3.0%) in Mar-24
- The MPC of Bank Negara Malaysia retained the OPR at 3.00% against the backdrop of global economic expansion, moderate inflation, and an improving trade environment.
- Malaysian growth is projected to accelerate in 2024, bolstered by the positive turn in export growth and robust domestic expenditure; however, monetary policy will need to remain agile to address any downside risks to external demand and commodity market volatility.
- The inflation outlook remains moderate for 2024, predicated on stable demand and cost pressures, but subject to the domestic subsidy and price control policy trajectory, which will be a significant determinant in the future direction of interest rates.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.
Mexico CPI Inflation 4.4% y-o-y (consensus 4.4%) in Feb-24
- Mexico’s CPI inflation for February 2024 was 4.4% year-on-year, matching expectations and marking the lowest growth rate since November 2023.
- The core CPI rate decreased by 12bps to 4.64% year-on-year.
- This decrease confirms the anticipated easing in underlying inflationary pressures.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.
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