In today’s briefing:
- China: How Much Can Easing of COVID-19 Restrictions Boost the Economy?
- Back-Testing End of Mandatory Lock-Up Periods Data from Korea Securities Depository in 2H 2022
- December Market Thinking
- RBI Rate Decision
- CX Daily: Beijing Stock Exchange Fights to Make Its Mark
China: How Much Can Easing of COVID-19 Restrictions Boost the Economy?
- Key weaknesses in China’s pandemic management are being remedied, setting the stage for a significant withdrawal of restrictions.
- This time is different: the Chinese government is starting to credibly signal that they are placing emphasis on the economy and citizens’ welfare.
- If risks are properly managed and policy easing continues, China’s growth in 2023 may surprise on the upside.
Back-Testing End of Mandatory Lock-Up Periods Data from Korea Securities Depository in 2H 2022
- In this insight, we provide a back-testing of the end of mandatory lock-up periods data from Korea Securities Depository (KSD) in the past six months.
- Our back-testing suggests a 67% probability of the average share price performances of the top 3 market cap companies in each month data underperforming relative to KOSPI (10/15 time periods).
- Among these stocks, some of the big underperformers included Wemade Co., Ltd. (112040 KS), Sebitchem (107600 KS), and Iljin Hysolus (271940 KS).
December Market Thinking
- The idea behind Market Thinking is not to make macro predictions, but rather, as the subtitle states, to try and ‘make sense of the narrative’; to assess where the markets think they are and to assess whether that is either consistent or credible.
- To that end, this time a year ago, we put out a series of posts – ‘four problems and a solution’ where we looked at the real problem with Bonds – that they offered negative real yields in a world where rates were having to rise sooner or later and that they suffered from an illusion of risk management with a bar bell of cash and junk.
- As we put it : “Looking forward and with the prospect of tighter monetary policy and the certainty of higher price levels, we now find ourselves, after a decade of government intervention and misplaced risk management, asking what now is the role, if any, for bonds in long term investment portfolios?“
RBI Rate Decision
- After a 50 bp hike three times a row, RBI softened and increased the repo rate by 35 basis points to 6.25%.
- Consequently, the standing deposit facility (SDF) rate stands adjusted to 6%, and the marginal standing facility (MSF) rate and the Bank Rate to 6.50%
- The basic facts on the ground have not changed much since the last policy in September-end: global headwinds, inflationary pressures arising from both exogenous and endogenous sources, and adverse terms of trade balanced against an economy exhibiting nascent growth with all the growth engines – industrial, agricultural and service sectors – in early stages of combustion.
CX Daily: Beijing Stock Exchange Fights to Make Its Mark
In Depth: Beijing Stock Exchange fights to make its mark
China eases quarantine rules, lifts travel test requirements in Covid policy overhaul
Xi to visit Saudi Arabia to boost relations in the Middle East
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