In today’s briefing:
- China Economics: Is Beijing Finally Abandoning Policy Inaction?
- Rubber’s Dual Dilemma – Supply Pressure Amid Limited Demand
- Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 11 Oct 2024
- Heard From Fortress Hill: Weekly Market Observations (11 Oct 2024)
- HEW: October’s Wave of Easing
- CX Daily: Why Making Green Hydrogen Is Keeping Producers in the Red
- Korea: 25bp Rate Cut To 3.25% (consensus 3.25%) in Oct-24
China Economics: Is Beijing Finally Abandoning Policy Inaction?
- Beijing’s latest policy announcements show that it is no longer content with a managed slowdown. They are now committed to more energetic policy support for the economy.
- Given the slowdown’s entrenched roots, partly due to Beijing’s prior reluctance, we do not think that the current package alone will turn things around.
- But with Beijing taking the cyclical slump more seriously, further support measures are likely, which, cumulatively, may be sufficient to stabilize short-term economic conditions.
Rubber’s Dual Dilemma – Supply Pressure Amid Limited Demand
- Delay in EUDR to lead to renegotiation of premium
- Talks of removal of Ivorian cup lump ban
Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 11 Oct 2024
- China’s economic policy remains focused on investment, with low expectations for a significant stimulus from the Ministry of Finance.
- International reserves are generally increasing across Asia, supporting currency appreciation, except for Indonesia.
- Japan’s recent data shows rising cash earnings but declining real wages and household spending, highlighting concerns in the real economy.
Heard From Fortress Hill: Weekly Market Observations (11 Oct 2024)
- We were right on the sideway walk eventually of HSI but far underestimate its volatility.
- US S&P is comparably more boring, edging north merely by 0.74% for the week
- Gold retreated a bit in the previous week but is instill a marvelous medium-term choice given the Fed rate cut cycle.
HEW: October’s Wave of Easing
- US inflation has surpassed expectations, along with strong payroll releases, despite a dovish bias. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has followed the Federal Reserve’s 50bp, Korea has begun cutting rates, and Peru has unexpectedly maintained its rates. Early-easers are reconsidering their strategies.
- The European Central Bank is expected to cut rates next week due to a dis-inflated outlook and disappointing demand. This expectation is shared by the market and consensus, although it is not a certainty.
- UK inflation data is predicted to slow, while the labour market continues to remain tight.
CX Daily: Why Making Green Hydrogen Is Keeping Producers in the Red
- Green hydrogen / In Depth: Why making green hydrogen is keeping producers in the red
- Swap /: Three things to know about PBOC’s new swap facility to boost stocks
- Monetary /: PBOC and Finance Ministry join forces to add bond trading to monetary policy toolbox
Korea: 25bp Rate Cut To 3.25% (consensus 3.25%) in Oct-24
- The Bank of Korea cut its base rate by 25bp to 3.25%, in line with the consensus, citing stabilised inflation and a slowdown in household debt growth.
- Future rate decisions will depend on the domestic demand recovery, which remains sluggish, alongside heightened global economic risks such as geopolitical tensions and volatility in foreign exchange markets.
- The central bank will continue to weigh the trade-offs between growth and financial stability, with particular attention to household debt and housing market dynamics amid potential further rate cuts.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.
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