In today’s briefing:
- China Economics: A Smaller, Smarter Belt and Road
- Great Game – The 3 Biggest Geopolitical Risks for Markets Right Now
- Fed Watch: Why Should the Fed Abandon the Planned Year-End Hike?
- 5 Things We Watch – BOJ, JPY, Treasury, Equities & Portfolio
- Singapore Politics: Leadership Succession Is Nearing, Expect Little Policy Change
- FX Watch – Exploring FX Fundamentals
- Liquidity & Treasury Watch: The Ramifications of the Quarterly Refunding Report
- CX Daily: The Opportunities and Roadblocks Facing China’s AI Models
- Spot Bitcoin ETF – A Reasonable Approach to Impact
- Fed Snap (November 1 Meeting): Current & Future Takeaways
China Economics: A Smaller, Smarter Belt and Road
- As Beijing heralds the tenth anniversary of its Belt and Road Initiative, we foresee that it will reorient the initiative in response to the new domestic and geopolitical environment.
- The Initiative has been a remarkable venture in economic diplomacy, buying China considerable leverage while delivering concrete benefits for recipient countries. There have, however, been setbacks.
- Despite the difficulties, Beijing is likely to maintain support for the Initiative. Shifts in project size and target sectors may lead to a smaller, but smarter, Belt and Road.
Great Game – The 3 Biggest Geopolitical Risks for Markets Right Now
- Welcome to this week’s edition of the Great Game.
- We give you our take on the hottest geopolitical topics of relevance to your portfolio.
- This week, we cover the 3 biggest geopolitical risks for markets right now and what to look our for.
Fed Watch: Why Should the Fed Abandon the Planned Year-End Hike?
- Welcome to our short and sweet Fed preview.
- No one expects policy action from the Fed this week, but Powell could decide to reiterate that the dot plot remains intact given the most recent information received.
- We doubt that Powell will bring about a strong guidance for a December hike, but unless the wheels come off, it’s very likely that they will be tempted to deliver that hike come December.
5 Things We Watch – BOJ, JPY, Treasury, Equities & Portfolio
- Global macro never sleeps, and this week is no exception with ongoing turmoil at the BOJ amidst their decision to change the YCC policy.
- As always, we have collected 5 of the things we find to be the most important to watch in the current landscape.
- YCC flexibility from the BOJ and more JPY weakness to come?
Singapore Politics: Leadership Succession Is Nearing, Expect Little Policy Change
- Incumbent Singapore prime minister Lee is likely aiming for a formal handover to deputy premier Wong in early 2024. This will be a crucial political transition for the city-state.
- The just-released Forward Singapore report implies that policy thinking will remain anchored to traditional ideological moorings. This leaves unanswered questions about social mobility, cost pressures, the housing market, and immigration.
- Lee would like to end his term with an agreement with neighbouring Malaysia on strengthening economic ties, which could be transformational for both countries.
FX Watch – Exploring FX Fundamentals
- Hello everyone, and welcome to a shorter piece on where to find fundamental value in the current FX environment.
- We’ll take a trip back to the theory books and use some of the good old correlations and fundamental value metrics to give some insights on the best FX bets now that the tightening cycle is likely soon coming to an end.
- Read along, as we run through the most important pairs below.
Liquidity & Treasury Watch: The Ramifications of the Quarterly Refunding Report
- The quarterly refunding report from the US Treasury was far from the issuance-bazooka that some had expected.
- There was no move in the target for the Treasury General Account either as we had expected, but it is not a reason to celebrate for bond bulls anyway.
- Let’s have a look at the details and the consequences for USD liquidity.
CX Daily: The Opportunities and Roadblocks Facing China’s AI Models
- AI / In Depth: The opportunities and roadblocks facing China’s AI models
Li Keqiang /: Li Keqiang’s remains to be cremated in Beijing on Thursday
China-U.S. /: California Governor Newsom visit boosts U.S.-China relations, climate collaboration
Spot Bitcoin ETF – A Reasonable Approach to Impact
- From a risk diversification perspective, a spot Bitcoin ETF investing in Bitcoin outside the current system is more appealing than a derivatives Bitcoin ETF.
- Using assets under management data of multi-asset, real assets, and gold ETFs, we estimate the potential AUM of spot Bitcoin ETFs somewhere between USD 50-150 billion.
- Assuming that the share of equity and bond ETFs of total assets investments is representative of spot Bitcoin ETFs, you are looking at a Bitcoin price between USD 41,000-113,000.
Fed Snap (November 1 Meeting): Current & Future Takeaways
- With an unchanged meeting outcome priced-in, the focus was exclusively on the accompanying statement and presser
- The post-meeting statement and Powell’s presser, while conditional, left the option to hike on the table
- The latest market expectations and my rule-based estimates offer clues on the likely path of Fed policy
💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
Sign Up for Free
The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network
- ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
- ✓ Personalised Alerts
- ✓ Custom Watchlists
- ✓ Company Data and News
- ✓ Events & Webinars
